{ "generated_utc": "2026-09-12T08:00:01Z", "observation_quality_policy": "Checks only symbol=PKT, source=deep_stats_pkt_explorer, and metrics pkt_airdrop_total, pkt_airdrop_claimed, pkt_airdrop1_unclaimed, pkt_airdrop2_unclaimed. Every checked observation requires finite nonnegative value, unit=token_base_units, nonempty verify_url, and an unambiguous finite nonnegative total with the exact same symbol, source, byte-exact as_of String, unit and verify_url. Component values must not exceed that total. All total rows participate: identical (value,unit,verify_url) duplicates are allowed; invalid or conflicting totals fail closed. Other observations are not_checked, not universally validated. This conditional Float64 constraint neither authenticates upstream data nor establishes freshness, exact integer accounting, supply reconciliation, or predictive value. Raw stored observations are unchanged.", "title": "Kairos Design Partner Brief \u2014 2026-09-12", "sections": { "allocator_ledger": { "question": "Is this network adding capacity faster than demand absorbs it?", "caveats": [ "Window starts 2026-08-06 00:37:10Z \u2014 about 11 days. One window, not a trend.", "Descriptive only. Nothing here is a forecast or a trading signal.", "Pairs come from the canonical ontology; units corrected via native_scale.", "Reported only when both halves have >=8 obs over >=3.0d." ], "findings": [ { "network": "IO", "resource": "devices", "utilisation_start_pct": 57.28, "utilisation_end_pct": 42.07, "utilisation_change_pp": -15.21, "supply_growth_pct": 19.21, "demand_growth_pct": -12.45, "divergence_pp": 31.66, "capacity_start": 2196.0, "capacity_end": 2617.785714285714, "in_use_start": 1257.8636363636363, "in_use_end": 1101.2142857142858, "native_numerator": "DEVICES_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "DEVICES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 860, "window_days": 36.0, "window_start": "2026-08-06", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 5.18, "utilisation_end_pct": 5.22, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.04, "supply_growth_pct": -2.05, "demand_growth_pct": -1.21, "divergence_pp": -0.84, "capacity_start": 3194783876000000.0, "capacity_end": 3129254988750000.0, "in_use_start": 165417000000000.0, "in_use_end": 163408000000000.0, "native_numerator": "APP_STORAGE_BYTES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_STORAGE_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 434, "window_days": 18.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 16.93, "utilisation_end_pct": 17.19, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.25, "supply_growth_pct": -1.96, "demand_growth_pct": -0.49, "divergence_pp": -1.47, "capacity_start": 53012.8, "capacity_end": 51975.5, "in_use_start": 8976.699999999977, "in_use_end": 8932.766666666661, "native_numerator": "APP_CORES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_CORES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 434, "window_days": 18.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 13.87, "utilisation_end_pct": 14.28, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.41, "supply_growth_pct": -7.1, "demand_growth_pct": -4.36, "divergence_pp": -2.74, "capacity_start": 63738276066918.4, "capacity_end": 59210611001002.664, "in_use_start": 8843518215535.2, "in_use_end": 8457572959846.75, "native_numerator": "MRU_USED", "native_denominator": "MRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 429, "window_days": 18.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "SC", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 25.85, "utilisation_end_pct": 26.86, "utilisation_change_pp": 1.01, "supply_growth_pct": -2.18, "demand_growth_pct": 1.65, "divergence_pp": -3.83, "capacity_start": 7687625527024919.0, "capacity_end": 7519654042425611.0, "in_use_start": 1986938885016483.0, "in_use_end": 2019684001490676.8, "native_numerator": "STORAGE_ACTIVE_BYTES", "native_denominator": "STORAGE_TOTAL_BYTES", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 533, "window_days": 22.0, "window_start": "2026-08-20", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 9.65, "utilisation_end_pct": 10.05, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.4, "supply_growth_pct": -1.95, "demand_growth_pct": 2.14, "divergence_pp": -4.09, "capacity_start": 190451885130383.7, "capacity_end": 186741084389376.4, "in_use_start": 18369693614080.0, "in_use_end": 18762332897280.0, "native_numerator": "APP_MEMORY_BYTES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_MEMORY_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 434, "window_days": 18.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "FIL", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 87.89, "utilisation_end_pct": 93.2, "utilisation_change_pp": 5.31, "supply_growth_pct": -6.63, "demand_growth_pct": -0.99, "divergence_pp": -5.64, "capacity_start": 1.5947972920265933e+18, "capacity_end": 1.48902356273048e+18, "in_use_start": 1.4016604604644997e+18, "in_use_end": 1.3877562112151555e+18, "native_numerator": "VERIFIED_DEAL_BYTES", "native_denominator": "COMMITTED_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 333, "window_days": 18.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 15.02, "utilisation_end_pct": 16.32, "utilisation_change_pp": 1.3, "supply_growth_pct": -6.73, "demand_growth_pct": 1.31, "divergence_pp": -8.04, "capacity_start": 9094.0, "capacity_end": 8482.166666666666, "in_use_start": 1366.0, "in_use_end": 1383.9583333333333, "native_numerator": "CRU_USED", "native_denominator": "CRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 429, "window_days": 18.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 7.98, "utilisation_end_pct": 8.72, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.74, "supply_growth_pct": 13.96, "demand_growth_pct": 24.54, "divergence_pp": -10.58, "capacity_start": 747931803641028.2, "capacity_end": 852372753150176.8, "in_use_start": 59658849523638.86, "in_use_end": 74301735338709.33, "native_numerator": "STORAGE_ACTIVE_BYTES", "native_denominator": "STORAGE_TOTAL_BYTES", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 584, "window_days": 25.0, "window_start": "2026-08-17", "window_end": "2026-09-11" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 20.55, "utilisation_end_pct": 28.75, "utilisation_change_pp": 8.2, "supply_growth_pct": 2.16, "demand_growth_pct": 42.93, "divergence_pp": -40.77, "capacity_start": 15508.0924, "capacity_end": 15843.731357142857, "in_use_start": 3186.816, "in_use_end": 4555.015714285714, "native_numerator": "CPU_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "CPU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "ACTIVE_CPU" ], "observations": 2720, "window_days": 34.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-09-12" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 0.0, "utilisation_end_pct": 0.0, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.0, "supply_growth_pct": 2.24, "demand_growth_pct": null, "divergence_pp": null, "capacity_start": 3947042469701222.5, "capacity_end": 4035275296991829.5, "in_use_start": 0.0, "in_use_end": 0.0, "native_numerator": "HRU_USED", "native_denominator": "HRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "SRU_USED", "SRU_TOTAL" ], "observations": 429, "window_days": 18.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-09-11" } ], "generated_utc": "2026-09-12T04:05:04Z", "how_to_verify": "GET https://kairossignal.com/v1/supply?network= \u2014 both halves of each ratio ship with source + as_of.", "withheld_implausible": [ { "network": "AKT", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 14.92, "utilisation_end_pct": 30.25, "utilisation_change_pp": 15.33, "supply_growth_pct": 0.63, "demand_growth_pct": 104.07, "divergence_pp": -103.44, "capacity_start": 99017992849165.44, "capacity_end": 99642627855376.0, "in_use_start": 14768956748062.72, "in_use_end": 30139247324745.145, "native_numerator": "MEMORY_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "MEMORY_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1911, "window_days": 32.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-09-11", "withheld_reason": "base moved 104% in 32.0d \u2014 beyond 100%, which in a window this short indicates a coverage/collector change rather than a network change. Withheld until the series has a stable baseline; the raw halves remain queryable via the API." }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "gpus", "utilisation_start_pct": 31.64, "utilisation_end_pct": 67.3, "utilisation_change_pp": 35.65, "supply_growth_pct": 6.07, "demand_growth_pct": 125.58, "divergence_pp": -119.51, "capacity_start": 423.96, "capacity_end": 449.7142857142857, "in_use_start": 134.16, "in_use_end": 302.64285714285717, "native_numerator": "GPU_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "GPU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 2720, "window_days": 34.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-09-12", "withheld_reason": "base moved 126% in 34.0d \u2014 beyond 100%, which in a window this short indicates a coverage/collector change rather than a network change. Withheld until the series has a stable baseline; the raw halves remain queryable via the API." }, { "network": "GLM", "resource": "providers", "utilisation_start_pct": 13.05, "utilisation_end_pct": 25.34, "utilisation_change_pp": 12.29, "supply_growth_pct": 283.8, "demand_growth_pct": 645.23, "divergence_pp": -361.43, "capacity_start": 177.95714285714286, "capacity_end": 683.0, "in_use_start": 23.221052631578946, "in_use_end": 173.05, "native_numerator": "COMPUTING_NOW", "native_denominator": "PROVIDERS_ONLINE", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "PROVIDERS_COMPUTING_UTIL", "PROVIDERS_ONLINE_UTIL" ], "observations": 3023, "window_days": 37.0, "window_start": "2026-08-06", "window_end": "2026-09-12", "withheld_reason": "base moved 645% in 37.0d \u2014 beyond 100%, which in a window this short indicates a coverage/collector change rather than a network change. Withheld until the series has a stable baseline; the raw halves remain queryable via the API." } ], "plausibility_rule": "Rows whose supply or demand base moved more than 100% inside the window are withheld and named, not silently dropped.", "pairs_refused": [ { "network": "IO", "resource": "gpus", "reason": "io.net's GPU_TOTAL is NOT registered GPU supply \u2014 it equals DEVICES_ACTIVE exactly on every archived day (1,213/1,213 ... 1,199/1,199), and GPU_HIRED + GPU_IDLE == GPU_TOTAL exactly. So hired/total is a FILL RATE on the already-active pool, near-tautological, and it excludes every passive device. It reads 96.7% while true device utilisation (active/registered) is 46.2% and FALLING \u2014 registered devices grew 2,057 -> 2,594 (+26%) in 7 days while active stayed flat near 1,200. Publishing 96.7% beside Akash's 30.5% (utilisation of REGISTERED capacity) would invert the actual story: io.net is the network accumulating idle supply fastest, not the one running hottest." }, { "network": "NOS", "resource": "devices", "reason": "NOSANA HAS NO PUBLISHABLE DENOMINATOR (probed 2026-08-24, recorded so the next agent does not re-probe it). The numerator is free and clean \u2014 dashboard.k8s.prd.nos.ci/api/jobs?state=RUNNING reports totalJobs=947 running jobs and each Nosana job occupies exactly one node. The denominator is not: /api/nodes and /api/nodes/stats require an authorization header (401 with one, 422 without), and no unauthenticated sibling exposes a node count. Two tempting substitutes were REFUSED. (1) running + queued NODES from /api/markets: that per-market queue holds only IDLE nodes and is 0 across all 47 markets while 43 jobs sit QUEUED, so the denominator would equal the numerator by construction and publish a tautological 100%. (2) per-market access-SFT supply on Solana (231 for the nvidia-3070 market): a node joining three markets holds three SFTs and nothing burns them when it leaves, so the sum counts memberships and departed nodes, not live nodes. The numerator is collected anyway (collectors_clean/nosana_utilisation.py writes NOS JOBS_RUNNING/JOBS_QUEUED/MARKET_IDLE_NODES) so the pair can complete the day Nosana publishes a node count; no ratio until then." }, { "network": "SC", "resource": "devices", "reason": "SIACOIN'S DENOMINATOR IS CUMULATIVE, NOT LIVE (measured 2026-08-24). Both halves flow \u2014 SC_ACTIVE_HOSTS ~530, SC_TOTAL_HOSTS ~87,048 \u2014 so the pair LOOKS complete and would auto-publish a 0.6% utilisation figure. It is not a utilisation figure: TOTAL_HOSTS counts every host ever announced to the Sia network and is monotonically non-decreasing across all 19 archived days (87,032.7 \u2192 87,048.0, never once falling), while ACTIVE_HOSTS moves both ways in the 514-556 band. A denominator that can only grow makes the ratio a function of the network's AGE, so it would fall forever regardless of how the network performs \u2014 the Storj denominator trap in a new costume. The numerator is honest and stays queryable; no ratio until Sia publishes a currently-announced host count." }, { "network": "STORJ", "resource": "storage_bytes", "reason": "STORJ PUBLISHES NO CAPACITY DENOMINATOR (measured 2026-08-24). Everything public is the numerator: stats.storjshare.io/data.json gives bytes stored by customers (53.4 PB) and the node-side footprint after erasure coding (92.2 PB, 1.73x), and the per-satellite node counts are memberships, not capacity \u2014 a node serving three satellites is counted three times, which is the same double-count that already inflated STORJ node totals. Nothing upstream states how many bytes the network could hold, so any utilisation ratio would need a denominator we invented. The numerator stays collected and is now correctly labelled storage_bytes_in_use rather than storage_bytes_total, which is what it had been resolving to." } ], "pairs_pending_history": [] }, "frozen_feeds": { "method": "Exactly one distinct stored value across >=20 observations spanning >=5 days, while other metrics on the same network change. Counts are stored observations, not independently verified poll attempts. Metric-name hints rank candidates; they do not establish expected cadence. Constant values and single upstream rechecks do not prove a stopped feed. No statistical failure probability is claimed.", "precedent": "2026-08-17: this is how we caught Akash's own API serving 30.5% GPU utilisation while the measured value was 55.8%.", "count": 1103, "should_be_dynamic": [ { "network": "SN73", "metric": "SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "12", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 4, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "ALGN", "metric": "active_validators", "source": "aligned_explorer", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "26", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 3, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN37", "metric": "SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "12", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 4, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "TFT", "metric": "HRU_USED", "source": "threefold_gridproxy", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 238, "held_value": "0", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 17, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "GRASS", "metric": "daily_gb_text", "source": "first_party_api", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 239, "held_value": "1676", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 1, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "EWT", "metric": "dex_volume_24h_usd", "source": "DefiLlama /overview/dexs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 119, "held_value": "0", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 1, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_geforce_rtx_3070_active", "source": "first_party_api", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 225, "held_value": "2", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 55, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "ALTHEA", "metric": "dex_volume_24h_usd", "source": "DefiLlama /overview/dexs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 119, "held_value": "0", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 10, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN48", "metric": "SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "12", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 6, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "PKT", "metric": "pkt_current_daily_yield", "source": "deep_stats_pkt_explorer", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 238, "held_value": "3.4453589952471364e23", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 6, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_m3_max_active", "source": "first_party_api", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 239, "held_value": "2", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 55, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_pro_6000_blackwell_96gb_active", "source": "first_party_api", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 239, "held_value": "0", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 55, "upstream_recheck": null } ], "slow_moving_probably_fine": [ { "network": "NYM", "metric": "signed_blocks_window", "source": "cosmos_lcd", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 239, "held_value": "10000", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 11, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN64", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "0.0005", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 7, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN117", "metric": "SUBNET_MAX_UIDS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "256", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 7, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN126", "metric": "SUBNET_NEURONS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "256", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 6, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN32", "metric": "SUBNET_TEMPO", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "360", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 8, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN118", "metric": "SUBNET_MAX_VALIDATORS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "64", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 8, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN113", "metric": "SUBNET_TEMPO", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "360", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 6, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN8", "metric": "SUBNET_TEMPO", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "360", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 8, "upstream_recheck": null } ] }, "supply_verifiability": { "method": "Chain-read total supply divided by the aggregator's reported total supply, same day. Decimals are normalised by the collectors. A ratio below 1 usually means the token also lives on chains we do not read; a ratio above 1 means the aggregator is understating.", "networks_compared": 211, "exact_match_within_1pct": 142, "gaps": [ { "network": "RIZ", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 100000.0, "aggregator_reported": 4989887900.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x058d411ab9911f90c74f471bdc9d2bb4cf9b309c", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x058d411ab9911f90c74f471bdc9d2bb4cf9b309c" }, { "network": "BDX", "chain_source": "bsc_rpc", "chain_read": 3895870.694777649, "aggregator_reported": 9939561680.63128, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0004, "chain": "bsc", "contract": "0x9d10a1ec41fe7878429bb457e31f9b050d38c633", "verify_url": "https://bscscan.com/token/0x9d10a1ec41fe7878429bb457e31f9b050d38c633" }, { "network": "GENE", "chain_source": "bsc_rpc", "chain_read": 261412.67254282383, "aggregator_reported": 100000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0026, "chain": "bsc", "contract": "0x9df465460938f9ebdf51c38cc87d72184471f8f0", "verify_url": "https://bscscan.com/token/0x9df465460938f9ebdf51c38cc87d72184471f8f0" }, { "network": "POKT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 15598555.688059, "aggregator_reported": 2375840967.593698, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0066, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x764a726d9ced0433a8d7643335919deb03a9a935", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x764a726d9ced0433a8d7643335919deb03a9a935" }, { "network": "DEUS", "chain_source": "solana_rpc", "chain_read": 9507938.916735044, "aggregator_reported": 1000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0095, "chain": "solana", "contract": "7JoGUTeaXkjcMGa6xJP2idYNYiLreto1WnsACHnpw3Gd", "verify_url": "https://solscan.io/token/7JoGUTeaXkjcMGa6xJP2idYNYiLreto1WnsACHnpw3Gd" }, { "network": "OORT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 20000000.0, "aggregator_reported": 1998899999.89, "verifiable_ratio": 0.01, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x5651fa7a726b9ec0cad00ee140179912b6e73599", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x5651fa7a726b9ec0cad00ee140179912b6e73599" }, { "network": "EWT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 917462.6383839246, "aggregator_reported": 81071824.94544457, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0113, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x178c820f862b14f316509ec36b13123da19a6054", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x178c820f862b14f316509ec36b13123da19a6054" }, { "network": "BCT", "chain_source": "toucan_contract", "chain_read": 15677735.25313, "aggregator_reported": 1000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0157, "chain": null, "contract": null, "verify_url": null }, { "network": "OCTA", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 1173601.8631, "aggregator_reported": 44907921.32955668, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0261, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0xfa704148d516b209d52c2d75f239274c8f8eaf1a", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0xfa704148d516b209d52c2d75f239274c8f8eaf1a" }, { "network": "NMT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 3857316.3432605364, "aggregator_reported": 143498235.2, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0269, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x03aa6298f1370642642415edc0db8b957783e8d6", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x03aa6298f1370642642415edc0db8b957783e8d6" }, { "network": "BTT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 36542206310204.44, "aggregator_reported": 990000000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0369, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0xc669928185dbce49d2230cc9b0979be6dc797957", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0xc669928185dbce49d2230cc9b0979be6dc797957" }, { "network": "SDM", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 39045566.3192, "aggregator_reported": 1000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.039, "chain": "base", "contract": "0x9cfe02eb040c6f5718126128dbba0c1d364d9c07", "verify_url": "https://base.blockscout.com/token/0x9cfe02eb040c6f5718126128dbba0c1d364d9c07" }, { "network": "NTMPI", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 19055146.557242, "aggregator_reported": 399963020.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0476, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x53be7be0ce7f92bcbd2138305735160fb799be4f", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x53be7be0ce7f92bcbd2138305735160fb799be4f" }, { "network": "LOOPIN", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 3241461.0093124, "aggregator_reported": 56732952.41423072, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0571, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x975da7b2325f815f1de23c8b68f721fb483b8071", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x975da7b2325f815f1de23c8b68f721fb483b8071" }, { "network": "GNUS", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 1000000.0, "aggregator_reported": 15193848.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0658, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x614577036f0a024dbc1c88ba616b394dd65d105a", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x614577036f0a024dbc1c88ba616b394dd65d105a" } ], "read": "142 of 211 networks reconcile to within 1% \u2014 those figures are independently confirmed, not taken on trust. The rest are listed with the exact contract we read so you can check in one click.", "not_an_accusation": "A low ratio is a statement about ONE deployment on ONE chain, not a claim that the aggregator is wrong. Multi-chain tokens (native chain + bridged ERC-20) legitimately show low ratios: e.g. POKT and BTT are native elsewhere and only their wrapped portion is readable on the chain we poll. Verified 2026-08-24 that our reads are faithful to the contract: RIZ reads 100,000 on 0x058d411a..., byte-identical to the explorer's own figure for that contract." }, "whale_netflow_extremes": { "method": "First difference of summed proof-of-reserve wallet balances across a FIXED exchange set (DefiLlama-tracked; Coinbase/Kraken publish no wallets and are absent). Flagged when the latest daily flow sits outside the middle 90% of its own ~90-day history.", "flags": [ { "asset": "APT", "date": "2026-09-12", "netflow_pct_of_balance": -5.754, "percentile_band": "bottom 5%", "history_days": 110, "read": "Coins leaving tracked exchange wallets (cannot be market-sold from cold storage)" }, { "asset": "SEI", "date": "2026-09-10", "netflow_pct_of_balance": -3.6, "percentile_band": "bottom 5%", "history_days": 102, "read": "Coins leaving tracked exchange wallets (cannot be market-sold from cold storage)" }, { "asset": "BONK", "date": "2026-09-10", "netflow_pct_of_balance": -1.919, "percentile_band": "bottom 5%", "history_days": 104, "read": "Coins leaving tracked exchange wallets (cannot be market-sold from cold storage)" }, { "asset": "UNI", "date": "2026-09-10", "netflow_pct_of_balance": -0.861, "percentile_band": "bottom 5%", "history_days": 104, "read": "Coins leaving tracked exchange wallets (cannot be market-sold from cold storage)" } ], "verify": "https://defillama.com/cexs" }, "concentration_watch": { "caveat": "Token ACCOUNTS, not owners \u2014 pools, treasuries and exchange wallets count, so this is an upper-bound concentration proxy. Series began 2026-08-24; week-over-week deltas appear as the baseline accrues.", "most_concentrated": [ { "network": "STAR", "top1_account_pct": 28.6, "top10_account_pct": 99.7, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "PULSE", "top1_account_pct": 27.5, "top10_account_pct": 99.4, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "GGRID", "top1_account_pct": 83.9, "top10_account_pct": 99.2, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ROVR", "top1_account_pct": 20.1, "top10_account_pct": 98.0, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ACRON", "top1_account_pct": 82.0, "top10_account_pct": 96.4, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "PHY", "top1_account_pct": 42.4, "top10_account_pct": 95.7, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "CPU", "top1_account_pct": 73.7, "top10_account_pct": 95.0, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "BLESS", "top1_account_pct": 30.0, "top10_account_pct": 94.6, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "QUIVER", "top1_account_pct": 66.7, "top10_account_pct": 94.3, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "AIDD", "top1_account_pct": 48.9, "top10_account_pct": 93.7, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" } ], "least_concentrated": [ { "network": "NOS", "top1_account_pct": 11.5, "top10_account_pct": 42.9, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "INFRA#infraxa", "top1_account_pct": 12.8, "top10_account_pct": 35.9, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "HONEY", "top1_account_pct": 10.5, "top10_account_pct": 33.7, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ALL", "top1_account_pct": 7.1, "top10_account_pct": 33.1, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" }, { "network": "HNT", "top1_account_pct": 5.2, "top10_account_pct": 26.3, "as_of": "2026-08-28T12:00:01Z" } ] }, "supply_movers_7d": { "method": "First-party supply telemetry only (tier=supply_telemetry). Latest value vs the value ~8-15 days ago; moves >15% shown. Single-window description, not a trend.", "top": [ { "network": "SN36", "metric": "SUBNET_VOLUME", "change_pct": 258070.7, "from": 1.994240421, "to": 5148.543532995, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "SN3", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "change_pct": 78457.1, "from": 0.00127296, "to": 0.999999999, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "SN65", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 42666.7, "from": 6.000000000000001e-09, "to": 2.5659999999999997e-06, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "SN20", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "change_pct": 39900.0, "from": 0.0005, "to": 0.2, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "SN62", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "change_pct": 16898.9, "from": 0.0005, "to": 0.084994721, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_pro_6000_blackwell_server_edition_active", "change_pct": 8900.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 90.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_pro_6000_blackwell_server_edition_total", "change_pct": 8900.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 90.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "POKT", "metric": "NOT_BONDED_TOKENS", "change_pct": 4241.3, "from": 61294458172.0, "to": 2660963558172.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_a4000_total", "change_pct": 3100.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 32.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_6000_ada_generation_active", "change_pct": 1700.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 18.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_6000_ada_generation_total", "change_pct": 1700.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 18.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "AKT", "metric": "STORAGE_PERSISTENT_PENDING_BYTES", "change_pct": 1296.0, "from": 26843545600.0, "to": 374735896576.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "STORJ", "metric": "storage_total_bytes_after_expansion", "change_pct": 1230.5, "from": 6212595871804024.0, "to": 8.266143889481659e+16, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "SN80", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 1206.9, "from": 0.00039708, "to": 0.005189401, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_h100_80g_pcie_total", "change_pct": 1100.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 12.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_l40_total", "change_pct": 666.7, "from": 3.0, "to": 23.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_l40_active", "change_pct": 666.7, "from": 3.0, "to": 23.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "ATH", "metric": "DL_REV_7D_USD", "change_pct": 630.6, "from": 40054.0, "to": 292622.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "ATH", "metric": "DL_FEES_7D_USD", "change_pct": 630.6, "from": 200270.0, "to": 1463109.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null }, { "network": "AKT", "metric": "gpu_pending", "change_pct": 600.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 7.0, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "note": null } ] }, "track_record": { "method": "Every claim in the previous brief, re-measured today by the same code that produced it. Generated mechanically from the prior brief's JSON: reversals cannot be dropped and wins cannot be added by hand.", "prior_brief": "2026-09-11", "entries": [ { "claim": "IO devices: overcapacity building (33.26pp, utilisation 41.33%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now overcapacity building at 31.66pp, utilisation 42.07% (+0.74pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "FLUX storage_bytes: balanced (-1.16pp, utilisation 5.24%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now balanced at -0.84pp, utilisation 5.22% (-0.02pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "FLUX compute_cores: balanced (-1.91pp, utilisation 17.26%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now balanced at -1.47pp, utilisation 17.19% (-0.07pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "FIL storage_bytes: balanced (-2.25pp, utilisation 89.93%)", "status": "REVERSED", "detail": "now demand outpacing supply at -5.64pp, utilisation 93.2% (+3.27pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "SC storage_bytes: balanced (-4.66pp, utilisation 27.1%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now balanced at -3.83pp, utilisation 26.86% (-0.24pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "FLUX memory_bytes: balanced (-4.78pp, utilisation 10.12%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now balanced at -4.09pp, utilisation 10.05% (-0.07pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "TFT memory_bytes: demand outpacing supply (-6.13pp, utilisation 14.79%)", "status": "REVERSED", "detail": "now balanced at -2.74pp, utilisation 14.28% (-0.51pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "TFT compute_cores: demand outpacing supply (-13.31pp, utilisation 17.15%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now demand outpacing supply at -8.04pp, utilisation 16.32% (-0.83pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "AKT storage_bytes: demand outpacing supply (-14.19pp, utilisation 8.97%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now demand outpacing supply at -10.58pp, utilisation 8.72% (-0.25pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "AKT compute_cores: demand outpacing supply (-51.79pp, utilisation 31.61%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now demand outpacing supply at -40.77pp, utilisation 28.75% (-2.86pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "TFT storage_bytes: balanced (Nonepp, utilisation 0.0%)", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now balanced at Nonepp, utilisation 0.0% (+0.0pp week-on-week)" }, { "claim": "SN73 `SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` unchanged for 10d at 12", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 12 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "IO `devices_m3_max_active` unchanged for 10d at 2", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 2 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "ALTHEA `dex_volume_24h_usd` unchanged for 10d at 0", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 0 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "PKT `pkt_current_daily_yield` unchanged for 10d at 3.4453589952471364e23", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 3.4453589952471364e23 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "EWT `dex_volume_24h_usd` unchanged for 10d at 0", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 0 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "SN48 `SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` unchanged for 10d at 12", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 12 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "TFT `HRU_USED` unchanged for 10d at 0", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 0 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "IO `devices_geforce_rtx_3070_active` unchanged for 10d at 2", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 2 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "GRASS `daily_gb_text` unchanged for 10d at 1676", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1676 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "IO `devices_rtx_pro_6000_blackwell_96gb_active` unchanged for 10d at 0", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 0 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "SN94 `SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` unchanged for 10d at 12", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 12 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "SN0 `SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` unchanged for 10d at 41", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 41 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "AKT memory_bytes withheld as implausible", "status": "STILL WITHHELD", "detail": "the implausible base is still inside the window" }, { "claim": "AKT gpus withheld as implausible", "status": "STILL WITHHELD", "detail": "the implausible base is still inside the window" }, { "claim": "GLM providers withheld as implausible", "status": "STILL WITHHELD", "detail": "the implausible base is still inside the window" } ], "scoreboard": { "HELD": 9, "REVERSED": 2, "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS": 12, "STILL WITHHELD": 3 } }, "call_sheet": { "method": "Each question is generated from a measured row in this brief and carries that row's number. No question appears here that the data above does not support.", "questions": [ { "target": "IO team / IO allocation", "basis": "devices utilisation 57.28% \u2192 42.07%, capacity +19.21% vs demand -12.45%", "ask": "You added 19.21% more devices capacity while demand moved -12.45% \u2014 utilisation fell 15.21pp. What is the committed demand pipeline that absorbs the capacity already onboarded, and what does the emission schedule cost per idle unit until it does?" }, { "target": "FIL team / FIL allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 87.89% \u2192 93.2%, demand +-0.99% vs capacity -6.63%", "ask": "Demand for storage_bytes grew -0.99% against -6.63% capacity \u2014 utilisation is up to 93.2%. What is the onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "TFT team / TFT allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 15.02% \u2192 16.32%, demand +1.31% vs capacity -6.73%", "ask": "Demand for compute_cores grew 1.31% against -6.73% capacity \u2014 utilisation is up to 16.32%. What is the onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "AKT team / AKT allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 7.98% \u2192 8.72%, demand +24.54% vs capacity 13.96%", "ask": "Demand for storage_bytes grew 24.54% against 13.96% capacity \u2014 utilisation is up to 8.72%. What is the onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "AKT team / AKT allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 20.55% \u2192 28.75%, demand +42.93% vs capacity 2.16%", "ask": "Demand for compute_cores grew 42.93% against 2.16% capacity \u2014 utilisation is up to 28.75%. What is the onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "SN73 team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` = 12 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` contain one value, 12, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 4 other metrics on SN73 kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" }, { "target": "ALGN team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`active_validators` = 26 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `active_validators` contain one value, 26, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 3 other metrics on ALGN kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" }, { "target": "SN37 team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` = 12 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` contain one value, 12, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 4 other metrics on SN37 kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" }, { "target": "TFT team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`HRU_USED` = 0 across 238 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `HRU_USED` contain one value, 0, spanning 10 days across 238 stored observations, while 17 other metrics on TFT kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" }, { "target": "RIZ team", "not_an_accusation": true, "basis": "chain read 100,000 vs aggregator 4,989,887,900 (0.0% verifiable on eth)", "ask": "We can independently confirm 0.0% of your reported total supply on 0x058d411ab9911f90c74f471bdc9d2bb4cf9b309c. Which contracts hold the remainder, so the full float is verifiable without taking an aggregator's word for it?" }, { "target": "BDX team", "not_an_accusation": true, "basis": "chain read 3,895,871 vs aggregator 9,939,561,681 (0.0% verifiable on bsc)", "ask": "We can independently confirm 0.0% of your reported total supply on 0x9d10a1ec41fe7878429bb457e31f9b050d38c633. Which contracts hold the remainder, so the full float is verifiable without taking an aggregator's word for it?" }, { "target": "GENE team", "not_an_accusation": true, "basis": "chain read 261,413 vs aggregator 100,000,000 (0.3% verifiable on bsc)", "ask": "We can independently confirm 0.3% of your reported total supply on 0x9df465460938f9ebdf51c38cc87d72184471f8f0. Which contracts hold the remainder, so the full float is verifiable without taking an aggregator's word for it?" } ] }, "verdict": { "scarce_asset": "Both halves of a utilisation ratio \u2014 capacity AND consumption \u2014 on 6 networks: AKT, FIL, FLUX, IO, SC, TFT. Node counts are public everywhere; the denominator is not. This is the entire reason the ledger below can exist, and it is why coverage, not commentary, is what we sell.", "headline": "AKT compute_cores: utilisation 20.55% \u2192 28.75%, with demand growing 40.77pp faster than capacity over the window", "headline_consequence": "Demand is outrunning capacity: the constraint is onboarding, not adoption, and utilisation headroom is the thing to underwrite.", "unchanged_observation_candidates": 12, "supply_independently_confirmed": 142, "supply_networks_compared": 211, "how_to_disagree": "Every figure ships source, as-of and a verify URL; the utilisation halves are at GET /v1/supply?network= and this brief is machine-readable at GET /v1/brief. If you can refute a number here, we would rather publish the correction than the number.", "track_record": "9 held, 2 reversed, 3 still withheld, 12 unchanged observations" } } }