{ "generated_utc": "2026-10-20T10:55:49Z", "observation_quality_policy": "Excludes demonstrated September 18 collector errors from GeckoTerminal, DefiLlama and URN before the repair boundary; AMBNT/ambient identity is permanently excluded. CoinGecko market_cap_usd or circulating_supply of exactly 0 is excluded: CoinGecko sends 0 when it does not track a coin's supply, so it is unknown, not zero. Also checks symbol=PKT, source=deep_stats_pkt_explorer, and metrics pkt_airdrop_total, pkt_airdrop_claimed, pkt_airdrop1_unclaimed, pkt_airdrop2_unclaimed. Every checked observation requires finite nonnegative value, unit=token_base_units, nonempty verify_url, and an unambiguous finite nonnegative total with the exact same symbol, source, byte-exact as_of String, unit and verify_url. Component values must not exceed that total. All total rows participate: identical (value,unit,verify_url) duplicates are allowed; invalid or conflicting totals fail closed. Other observations are not_checked, not universally validated. This conditional Float64 constraint neither authenticates upstream data nor establishes freshness, exact integer accounting, supply reconciliation, or predictive value. Raw stored observations are unchanged. Since 2026-09-25, rows inside an interval of the quality-incident registry the caller passes (quarantined collector output) are labelled quality_incident and are not served.", "quality_incident_policy": "Every on-chain and daily-snapshot read also excludes each observation inside a quality-incident interval in our incident registry (matched on exact source, plus symbol and metric where the incident lists them).", "title": "Kairos Design Partner Brief \u2014 2026-10-20", "sections": { "allocator_ledger": { "question": "Is this network adding capacity faster than demand absorbs it?", "caveats": [ "Windows run 56-75 days per pair (anchor days from 2026-08-06 at the earliest to 2026-10-20 at the latest); series are read from 2026-08-06 00:37:10Z. One window per pair, not a trend.", "Descriptive only. Nothing here is a forecast or a trading signal.", "Pairs come from the canonical ontology; units corrected via native_scale.", "Reported only when both halves have >=8 obs over >=3.0d." ], "findings": [ { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 9.65, "utilisation_end_pct": 6.29, "utilisation_change_pp": -3.35, "supply_growth_pct": 10.18, "demand_growth_pct": -28.09, "divergence_pp": 38.27, "capacity_start": 190451885130383.7, "capacity_end": 209838899532049.5, "in_use_start": 18369693614080.0, "in_use_end": 13209169996458.666, "native_numerator": "APP_MEMORY_BYTES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_MEMORY_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1335, "window_days": 56.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 16.93, "utilisation_end_pct": 12.1, "utilisation_change_pp": -4.84, "supply_growth_pct": 9.22, "demand_growth_pct": -21.97, "divergence_pp": 31.19, "capacity_start": 53012.8, "capacity_end": 57900.375, "in_use_start": 8976.699999999977, "in_use_end": 7004.741666666669, "native_numerator": "APP_CORES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_CORES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1335, "window_days": 56.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 5.18, "utilisation_end_pct": 3.71, "utilisation_change_pp": -1.46, "supply_growth_pct": 6.89, "demand_growth_pct": -23.32, "divergence_pp": 30.21, "capacity_start": 3194783876000000.0, "capacity_end": 3414907302500000.0, "in_use_start": 165417000000000.0, "in_use_end": 126845750000000.0, "native_numerator": "APP_STORAGE_BYTES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_STORAGE_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1335, "window_days": 56.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "FIL", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 87.89, "utilisation_end_pct": 89.62, "utilisation_change_pp": 1.73, "supply_growth_pct": -7.05, "demand_growth_pct": -5.23, "divergence_pp": -1.83, "capacity_start": 1.5947972920265933e+18, "capacity_end": 1.4823272898436792e+18, "in_use_start": 1.4016604604644997e+18, "in_use_end": 1.3283963762825142e+18, "native_numerator": "VERIFIED_DEAL_BYTES", "native_denominator": "COMMITTED_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1144, "window_days": 56.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 13.87, "utilisation_end_pct": 15.11, "utilisation_change_pp": 1.24, "supply_growth_pct": -9.77, "demand_growth_pct": -1.73, "divergence_pp": -8.04, "capacity_start": 63738276066918.4, "capacity_end": 57509149052571.83, "in_use_start": 8843518215535.2, "in_use_end": 8690258067155.348, "native_numerator": "MRU_USED", "native_denominator": "MRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1319, "window_days": 56.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "IO", "resource": "devices", "utilisation_start_pct": 57.28, "utilisation_end_pct": 64.21, "utilisation_change_pp": 6.93, "supply_growth_pct": -7.36, "demand_growth_pct": 3.85, "divergence_pp": -11.21, "capacity_start": 2196.0, "capacity_end": 2034.2916666666667, "in_use_start": 1257.8636363636363, "in_use_end": 1306.2916666666667, "native_numerator": "DEVICES_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "DEVICES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1755, "window_days": 74.0, "window_start": "2026-08-06", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-19 (74d)", "ratio_kind": "active_device_share" }, { "network": "SC", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 25.85, "utilisation_end_pct": 30.3, "utilisation_change_pp": 4.46, "supply_growth_pct": -6.67, "demand_growth_pct": 9.43, "divergence_pp": -16.09, "capacity_start": 7687625527024919.0, "capacity_end": 7175179129236139.0, "in_use_start": 1986938885016483.0, "in_use_end": 2174280326272341.2, "native_numerator": "STORAGE_ACTIVE_BYTES", "native_denominator": "STORAGE_TOTAL_BYTES", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1428, "window_days": 60.0, "window_start": "2026-08-20", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-19 (60d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 7.98, "utilisation_end_pct": 9.81, "utilisation_change_pp": 1.83, "supply_growth_pct": -13.31, "demand_growth_pct": 6.6, "divergence_pp": -19.91, "capacity_start": 747931803641028.2, "capacity_end": 648401629813826.0, "in_use_start": 59658849523638.86, "in_use_end": 63597108990080.0, "native_numerator": "STORAGE_ACTIVE_BYTES", "native_denominator": "STORAGE_TOTAL_BYTES", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1479, "window_days": 63.0, "window_start": "2026-08-17", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-19 (63d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 15.02, "utilisation_end_pct": 19.27, "utilisation_change_pp": 4.25, "supply_growth_pct": -8.74, "demand_growth_pct": 17.08, "divergence_pp": -25.82, "capacity_start": 9094.0, "capacity_end": 8299.130434782608, "in_use_start": 1366.0, "in_use_end": 1599.2608695652175, "native_numerator": "CRU_USED", "native_denominator": "CRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1319, "window_days": 56.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 20.55, "utilisation_end_pct": 29.26, "utilisation_change_pp": 8.71, "supply_growth_pct": -6.88, "demand_growth_pct": 32.58, "divergence_pp": -39.46, "capacity_start": 15508.0924, "capacity_end": 14441.002, "in_use_start": 3186.816, "in_use_end": 4225.055714285714, "native_numerator": "CPU_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "CPU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "ACTIVE_CPU" ], "observations": 5811, "window_days": 72.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 14.92, "utilisation_end_pct": 36.42, "utilisation_change_pp": 21.51, "supply_growth_pct": -21.41, "demand_growth_pct": 91.91, "divergence_pp": -113.32, "capacity_start": 99017992849165.44, "capacity_end": 77819090459323.14, "in_use_start": 14768956748062.72, "in_use_end": 28343529012004.57, "native_numerator": "MEMORY_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "MEMORY_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 4598, "window_days": 69.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (69d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 0.0, "utilisation_end_pct": 0.0, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.0, "supply_growth_pct": 12.58, "demand_growth_pct": null, "divergence_pp": null, "capacity_start": 3947042469701222.5, "capacity_end": 4443714627991552.0, "in_use_start": 0.0, "in_use_end": 0.0, "native_numerator": "HRU_USED", "native_denominator": "HRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "SRU_USED", "SRU_TOTAL" ], "observations": 1319, "window_days": 56.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-19", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" } ], "generated_utc": "2026-10-20T04:05:07Z", "how_to_verify": "GET https://kairossignal.com/v1/supply?network= \u2014 both halves of each ratio ship with source + as_of.", "withheld_implausible": [ { "network": "AKT", "resource": "gpus", "utilisation_start_pct": 31.64, "utilisation_end_pct": 67.72, "utilisation_change_pp": 36.07, "supply_growth_pct": 1.14, "demand_growth_pct": 116.43, "divergence_pp": -115.29, "capacity_start": 423.96, "capacity_end": 428.7857142857143, "in_use_start": 134.16, "in_use_end": 290.35714285714283, "native_numerator": "GPU_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "GPU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 5811, "window_days": 72.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "withheld_reason": "base moved 116% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d), above the 100% review trigger. Crossing the trigger is a reason to review the series, not proof of its cause: a move this large can be a real network change or a coverage or collector change, and this brief has not established which. Withheld from the table while the move stays above the trigger; the raw halves remain queryable via the API.", "window_label": "2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "GLM", "resource": "providers", "utilisation_start_pct": 13.05, "utilisation_end_pct": 24.89, "utilisation_change_pp": 11.84, "supply_growth_pct": 345.05, "demand_growth_pct": 749.05, "divergence_pp": -404.0, "capacity_start": 177.95714285714286, "capacity_end": 792.0, "in_use_start": 23.221052631578946, "in_use_end": 197.1578947368421, "native_numerator": "COMPUTING_NOW", "native_denominator": "PROVIDERS_ONLINE", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "PROVIDERS_COMPUTING_UTIL", "PROVIDERS_ONLINE_UTIL" ], "observations": 6113, "window_days": 75.0, "window_start": "2026-08-06", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "withheld_reason": "base moved 749% over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-20 (75d), above the 100% review trigger. Crossing the trigger is a reason to review the series, not proof of its cause: a move this large can be a real network change or a coverage or collector change, and this brief has not established which. Withheld from the table while the move stays above the trigger; the raw halves remain queryable via the API.", "window_label": "2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-20 (75d)", "ratio_kind": "utilisation" } ], "plausibility_rule": "Rows whose supply or demand base moved more than 100% inside their own window are withheld and named, not silently dropped. Crossing 100% is a review trigger, not proof of a collector or coverage cause.", "pairs_refused": [ { "network": "IO", "resource": "gpus", "reason": "io.net's GPU_TOTAL is NOT registered GPU supply \u2014 it equals DEVICES_ACTIVE exactly on every archived day (1,213/1,213 ... 1,199/1,199), and GPU_HIRED + GPU_IDLE == GPU_TOTAL exactly. So hired/total is a FILL RATE on the already-active pool, near-tautological, and it excludes every passive device. It reads 96.7% while the share of registered devices that are active (active/registered) is 46.2% and FALLING \u2014 io.net's 'active' means connected through its worker, hired or idle, not in use (2026-09-25: the worker list matches active exactly, 1,275, of which 1,260 hired) \u2014 registered devices grew 2,057 -> 2,594 (+26%) in 7 days while active stayed flat near 1,200. Publishing 96.7% beside Akash's 30.5% (utilisation of REGISTERED capacity) would invert the actual story: io.net is the network accumulating idle supply fastest, not the one running hottest." }, { "network": "NOS", "resource": "devices", "reason": "NOSANA HAS NO PUBLISHABLE DENOMINATOR (probed 2026-08-24, recorded so the next agent does not re-probe it). The numerator is free and clean \u2014 dashboard.k8s.prd.nos.ci/api/jobs?state=RUNNING reports totalJobs=947 running jobs and each Nosana job occupies exactly one node. The denominator is not: /api/nodes and /api/nodes/stats require an authorization header (401 with one, 422 without), and no unauthenticated sibling exposes a node count. Two tempting substitutes were REFUSED. (1) running + queued NODES from /api/markets: that per-market queue holds only IDLE nodes and is 0 across all 47 markets while 43 jobs sit QUEUED, so the denominator would equal the numerator by construction and publish a tautological 100%. (2) per-market access-SFT supply on Solana (231 for the nvidia-3070 market): a node joining three markets holds three SFTs and nothing burns them when it leaves, so the sum counts memberships and departed nodes, not live nodes. The numerator is collected anyway (collectors_clean/nosana_utilisation.py writes NOS JOBS_RUNNING/JOBS_QUEUED/MARKET_IDLE_NODES) so the pair can complete the day Nosana publishes a node count; no ratio until then." }, { "network": "SC", "resource": "devices", "reason": "SIACOIN'S DENOMINATOR IS CUMULATIVE, NOT LIVE (measured 2026-08-24). Both halves flow \u2014 SC_ACTIVE_HOSTS ~530, SC_TOTAL_HOSTS ~87,048 \u2014 so the pair LOOKS complete and would auto-publish a 0.6% utilisation figure. It is not a utilisation figure: TOTAL_HOSTS counts every host ever announced to the Sia network and is monotonically non-decreasing across all 19 archived days (87,032.7 \u2192 87,048.0, never once falling), while ACTIVE_HOSTS moves both ways in the 514-556 band. A denominator that can only grow makes the ratio a function of the network's AGE, so it would fall forever regardless of how the network performs \u2014 the Storj denominator trap in a new costume. The numerator is honest and stays queryable; no ratio until Sia publishes a currently-announced host count." }, { "network": "STORJ", "resource": "storage_bytes", "reason": "STORJ PUBLISHES NO CAPACITY DENOMINATOR (measured 2026-08-24). Everything public is the numerator: stats.storjshare.io/data.json gives bytes stored by customers (53.4 PB) and the node-side footprint after erasure coding (92.2 PB, 1.73x), and the per-satellite node counts are memberships, not capacity \u2014 a node serving three satellites is counted three times, which is the same double-count that already inflated STORJ node totals. Nothing upstream states how many bytes the network could hold, so any utilisation ratio would need a denominator we invented. The numerator stays collected and is now correctly labelled storage_bytes_in_use rather than storage_bytes_total, which is what it had been resolving to." } ], "pairs_pending_history": [] }, "frozen_feeds": { "method": "Exactly one distinct stored value across >=20 observations spanning >=5 days, while other metrics on the same network change. Counts are stored observations, not independently verified poll attempts. Metric-name hints rank candidates; they do not establish expected cadence. Constant values and single upstream rechecks do not prove a stopped feed. No statistical failure probability is claimed.", "precedent": "2026-08-17: this is how we caught Akash's own API serving 30.5% GPU utilisation while the measured value was 55.8%.", "count": 3030, "should_be_dynamic": [ { "network": "JCT", "metric": "dex_pairs_active", "source": "dexscreener_pairs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "1", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 7, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SXCH", "metric": "dex_gt_pairs_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "3", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 5, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "EAT", "metric": "dex_venues_active", "source": "dexscreener_pairs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "1", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 16, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "PHB", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "3", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 7, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SUIDEPIN", "metric": "dex_venues_active", "source": "dexscreener_pairs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 37, "held_value": "1", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 15, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "WINGS", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "4", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 16, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "FAR", "metric": "dex_gt_pairs_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "2", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 5, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "PIN", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "3", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 5, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN72", "metric": "SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "9", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 13, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "ACRON", "metric": "dex_gt_pairs_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "4", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 8, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "HONEY", "metric": "dex_gt_pairs_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "20", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 13, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "LIT", "metric": "dex_venues_active", "source": "dexscreener_pairs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "1", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 12, "upstream_recheck": null } ], "slow_moving_probably_fine": [ { "network": "SN68", "metric": "SUBNET_COMMIT_REVEAL_ENABLED", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "1", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 20, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN58", "metric": "SUBNET_NEURONS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "256", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 20, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "RCHV", "metric": "bsc_total_supply", "source": "bsc_deep_stats", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 240, "held_value": "1000000000", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 5, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN19", "metric": "SUBNET_UIDS_WITH_VALIDATOR_TRUST", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "9", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 24, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN31", "metric": "SUBNET_UIDS_WITH_DIVIDENDS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "16", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 15, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "GEEQ", "metric": "onchain_total_supply", "source": "ethereum_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "100000000", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 12, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "NOW", "metric": "avg_block_time_ms", "source": "nowchain_blockscout", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "3000", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 6, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN2", "metric": "SUBNET_REGISTRATIONS_THIS_INTERVAL", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "0", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 23, "upstream_recheck": null } ] }, "supply_verifiability": { "method": "Chain-read total supply divided by the aggregator's reported total supply, same day. Decimals are normalised by the collectors. A ratio below 1 usually means the token also lives on chains we do not read; a ratio above 1 means the aggregator is understating.", "networks_compared": 217, "exact_match_within_1pct": 144, "gaps_total": 54, "gaps_listed": 15, "gaps": [ { "network": "BDX", "chain_source": "bsc_rpc", "chain_read": 950366.694777649, "aggregator_reported": 9939718245.38, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0001, "chain": "bsc", "contract": "0x9d10a1ec41fe7878429bb457e31f9b050d38c633", "verify_url": "https://bscscan.com/token/0x9d10a1ec41fe7878429bb457e31f9b050d38c633" }, { "network": "GENE", "chain_source": "bsc_rpc", "chain_read": 261412.67254282383, "aggregator_reported": 100000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0026, "chain": "bsc", "contract": "0x9df465460938f9ebdf51c38cc87d72184471f8f0", "verify_url": "https://bscscan.com/token/0x9df465460938f9ebdf51c38cc87d72184471f8f0" }, { "network": "POKT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 17102624.454205, "aggregator_reported": 2375376125.643731, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0072, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x764a726d9ced0433a8d7643335919deb03a9a935", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x764a726d9ced0433a8d7643335919deb03a9a935" }, { "network": "OORT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 20000000.0, "aggregator_reported": 1998899999.89, "verifiable_ratio": 0.01, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x5651fa7a726b9ec0cad00ee140179912b6e73599", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x5651fa7a726b9ec0cad00ee140179912b6e73599" }, { "network": "DEUS", "chain_source": "solana_rpc", "chain_read": 10096673.764287708, "aggregator_reported": 1000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0101, "chain": "solana", "contract": "7JoGUTeaXkjcMGa6xJP2idYNYiLreto1WnsACHnpw3Gd", "verify_url": "https://solscan.io/token/7JoGUTeaXkjcMGa6xJP2idYNYiLreto1WnsACHnpw3Gd" }, { "network": "EWT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 917360.3113309246, "aggregator_reported": 81071824.94544457, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0113, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x178c820f862b14f316509ec36b13123da19a6054", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x178c820f862b14f316509ec36b13123da19a6054" }, { "network": "OCTA", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 1173601.8631, "aggregator_reported": 44907921.32955668, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0261, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0xfa704148d516b209d52c2d75f239274c8f8eaf1a", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0xfa704148d516b209d52c2d75f239274c8f8eaf1a" }, { "network": "NMT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 3831914.9727321663, "aggregator_reported": 143447780.2, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0267, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x03aa6298f1370642642415edc0db8b957783e8d6", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x03aa6298f1370642642415edc0db8b957783e8d6" }, { "network": "BTT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 36542206310204.44, "aggregator_reported": 990000000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0369, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0xc669928185dbce49d2230cc9b0979be6dc797957", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0xc669928185dbce49d2230cc9b0979be6dc797957" }, { "network": "SDM", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 40043182.493887, "aggregator_reported": 1000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.04, "chain": "base", "contract": "0x9cfe02eb040c6f5718126128dbba0c1d364d9c07", "verify_url": "https://base.blockscout.com/token/0x9cfe02eb040c6f5718126128dbba0c1d364d9c07" }, { "network": "NTMPI", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 19055146.557242, "aggregator_reported": 399963020.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0476, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x53be7be0ce7f92bcbd2138305735160fb799be4f", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x53be7be0ce7f92bcbd2138305735160fb799be4f" }, { "network": "LOOPIN", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 3296565.04723058, "aggregator_reported": 57655698.609628685, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0572, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x975da7b2325f815f1de23c8b68f721fb483b8071", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x975da7b2325f815f1de23c8b68f721fb483b8071" }, { "network": "GNUS", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 970018.5130378058, "aggregator_reported": 15193848.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0638, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x614577036f0a024dbc1c88ba616b394dd65d105a", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x614577036f0a024dbc1c88ba616b394dd65d105a" }, { "network": "SLC", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 7095596065.975853, "aggregator_reported": 98797933055.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0718, "chain": "base", "contract": "0x6bd83abc39391af1e24826e90237c4bd3468b5d2", "verify_url": "https://base.blockscout.com/token/0x6bd83abc39391af1e24826e90237c4bd3468b5d2" }, { "network": "NODL", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 546469427.3371207, "aggregator_reported": 7486467828.561682, "verifiable_ratio": 0.073, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x6dd0e17ec6fe56c5f58a0fe2bb813b9b5cc25990", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x6dd0e17ec6fe56c5f58a0fe2bb813b9b5cc25990" } ], "read": "144 of 217 networks reconcile to within 1% \u2014 those figures are independently confirmed, not taken on trust. Of the other 73, 54 are more than 10% off; the 15 with the lowest ratios are listed with the exact contract we read so you can check in one click.", "not_an_accusation": "A low ratio is a statement about ONE deployment on ONE chain, not a claim that the aggregator is wrong. Multi-chain tokens (native chain + bridged ERC-20) legitimately show low ratios: e.g. POKT and BTT are native elsewhere and only their wrapped portion is readable on the chain we poll. Verified 2026-08-24 that our reads are faithful to the contract: RIZ reads 100,000 on 0x058d411a..., byte-identical to the explorer's own figure for that contract." }, "whale_netflow_extremes": { "method": "First difference of summed proof-of-reserve wallet balances across a FIXED exchange set (DefiLlama-tracked; Coinbase/Kraken publish no wallets and are absent). Flagged when the latest daily flow sits outside the middle 90% of its own ~90-day history.", "flags": [ { "asset": "WLD", "date": "2026-10-20", "netflow_pct_of_balance": 73.886, "percentile_band": "top 5%", "history_days": 142, "read": "Coins arriving on tracked exchange wallets" }, { "asset": "LTC", "date": "2026-10-20", "netflow_pct_of_balance": -11.92, "percentile_band": "bottom 5%", "history_days": 126, "read": "Coins leaving tracked exchange wallets (cannot be market-sold from cold storage)" }, { "asset": "XRP", "date": "2026-10-20", "netflow_pct_of_balance": 6.992, "percentile_band": "top 5%", "history_days": 135, "read": "Coins arriving on tracked exchange wallets" }, { "asset": "BNB", "date": "2026-10-20", "netflow_pct_of_balance": 2.572, "percentile_band": "top 5%", "history_days": 136, "read": "Coins arriving on tracked exchange wallets" }, { "asset": "ARB", "date": "2026-10-20", "netflow_pct_of_balance": 1.032, "percentile_band": "top 5%", "history_days": 134, "read": "Coins arriving on tracked exchange wallets" } ], "null_expectation": { "assets_evaluated": 47, "expected_flags_per_day_without_signal": 4.0, "flagged_today": 5, "shown": 5, "method": "the same rule (outside each asset's own 5th-95th percentile band, |flow| >= 0.5%) applied to every past day of that asset's history, summed across assets" }, "verify": "https://defillama.com/cexs" }, "concentration_watch": { "caveat": "Token ACCOUNTS, not owners \u2014 pools, treasuries and exchange wallets count, so this is an upper-bound concentration proxy. Series began 2026-08-24; week-over-week deltas appear as the baseline accrues.", "most_concentrated": [ { "network": "STAR", "top1_account_pct": 33.1, "top10_account_pct": 99.8, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "BRUSH", "top1_account_pct": 41.9, "top10_account_pct": 99.8, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "GGRID", "top1_account_pct": 87.7, "top10_account_pct": 99.6, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "PULSE", "top1_account_pct": 27.6, "top10_account_pct": 99.5, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ACRON", "top1_account_pct": 88.9, "top10_account_pct": 98.3, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ROVR", "top1_account_pct": 20.2, "top10_account_pct": 98.1, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "GB", "top1_account_pct": 86.5, "top10_account_pct": 96.3, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "CPU", "top1_account_pct": 76.5, "top10_account_pct": 95.7, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "PHY", "top1_account_pct": 40.9, "top10_account_pct": 95.6, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "QUIVER", "top1_account_pct": 68.0, "top10_account_pct": 95.4, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" } ], "least_concentrated": [ { "network": "MOBILE", "top1_account_pct": 8.4, "top10_account_pct": 46.5, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "NOS", "top1_account_pct": 11.5, "top10_account_pct": 42.6, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "HONEY", "top1_account_pct": 11.4, "top10_account_pct": 37.4, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ALL", "top1_account_pct": 8.8, "top10_account_pct": 34.7, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "HNT", "top1_account_pct": 4.2, "top10_account_pct": 26.4, "as_of": "2026-10-20T06:00:01Z" } ] }, "supply_movers_7d": { "method": "First-party supply telemetry only (tier=supply_telemetry). Latest value vs the value ~8-15 days ago; moves >15% shown. Single-window description, not a trend.", "top": [ { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_VOLUME", "change_pct": 23352297.2, "from": 0.453212706, "to": 105836.031348132, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN86", "metric": "SUBNET_VOLUME", "change_pct": 808667.0, "from": 2.125984345, "to": 17194.260465004, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "change_pct": 716497.9, "from": 0.0005, "to": 3.582989514, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_FLOW", "change_pct": 381881.9, "from": 0.452984529, "to": 1730.3191229, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 355330.1, "from": 4.198e-06, "to": 0.014920955, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN112", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 166353.5, "from": 1e-06, "to": 0.001664535, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN112", "metric": "SUBNET_ALPHA_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 130982.5, "from": 0.000156556, "to": 0.205217452, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "FIL", "metric": "BASE_FEE", "change_pct": 110492.0, "from": 100.0, "to": 110592.0, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_RECYCLED_FOR_REGISTRATION", "change_pct": 63494.2, "from": 0.453212706, "to": 288.217193676, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_UIDS_WITH_CONSENSUS", "change_pct": 23500.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 236.0, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN86", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "change_pct": 19900.0, "from": 0.0005, "to": 0.099999999, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_ALPHA_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 12682.0, "from": 0.003155857, "to": 0.403380954, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_5090_total", "change_pct": 3200.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 33.0, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "BZZ", "metric": "UNSTABLE_NODES_DAY", "change_pct": 1666.7, "from": 3.0, "to": 53.0, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN71", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 1376.9, "from": 3.89e-07, "to": 5.745e-06, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN71", "metric": "SUBNET_ALPHA_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 1291.6, "from": 8.0111e-05, "to": 0.001114853, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN99", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 1158.9, "from": 8.64e-07, "to": 1.0877e-05, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN82", "metric": "SUBNET_VOLUME", "change_pct": 1097.3, "from": 853.676685748, "to": 10220.982916858, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN46", "metric": "SUBNET_ALPHA_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 1066.1, "from": 0.004743688, "to": 0.055316139, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null }, { "network": "SN46", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 962.4, "from": 1.7566e-05, "to": 0.000186629, "as_of": "2026-10-19", "note": null } ] }, "track_record": { "method": "Every claim in the prior edition of this brief (2026-10-19), re-measured today by this edition's generator. The brief is generated daily, so the prior edition is normally the previous day's. Generated mechanically from the prior edition's JSON: reversals cannot be dropped and wins cannot be added by hand.", "prior_brief": "2026-10-19", "entries": [ { "claim": "FLUX memory_bytes: capacity growth exceeds use growth (37.96pp, utilisation 6.32%; 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-18 (55d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now capacity growth exceeds use growth at 38.27pp, utilisation 6.29% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) (-0.03pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "FLUX compute_cores: capacity growth exceeds use growth (30.55pp, utilisation 12.19%; 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-18 (55d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now capacity growth exceeds use growth at 31.19pp, utilisation 12.1% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) (-0.09pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "FLUX storage_bytes: capacity growth exceeds use growth (29.37pp, utilisation 3.75%; 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-18 (55d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now capacity growth exceeds use growth at 30.21pp, utilisation 3.71% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) (-0.04pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "FIL storage_bytes: growth rates within 5pp (-1.78pp, utilisation 89.57%; 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-18 (55d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now growth rates within 5pp at -1.83pp, utilisation 89.62% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) (+0.05pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "IO devices: active-device growth exceeds total-device growth (-6.02pp, active-device share 60.82%; 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-18 (73d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now active-device growth exceeds total-device growth at -11.21pp, active-device share 64.21% over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-19 (74d) (+3.39pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "TFT memory_bytes: use growth exceeds capacity growth (-7.92pp, utilisation 15.09%; 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-18 (55d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -8.04pp, utilisation 15.11% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) (+0.02pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "SC storage_bytes: use growth exceeds capacity growth (-14.48pp, utilisation 29.79%; 2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-18 (59d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -16.09pp, utilisation 30.3% over 2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-19 (60d) (+0.51pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "AKT storage_bytes: use growth exceeds capacity growth (-18.79pp, utilisation 9.71%; 2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-18 (62d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -19.91pp, utilisation 9.81% over 2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-19 (63d) (+0.1pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "TFT compute_cores: use growth exceeds capacity growth (-25.33pp, utilisation 19.18%; 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-18 (55d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -25.82pp, utilisation 19.27% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) (+0.09pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "AKT compute_cores: use growth exceeds capacity growth (-35.81pp, utilisation 28.24%; 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-19 (71d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -39.46pp, utilisation 29.26% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d) (+1.02pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "AKT memory_bytes: use growth exceeds capacity growth (-110.27pp, utilisation 35.43%; 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-19 (68d))", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -113.32pp, utilisation 36.42% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (69d) (+0.99pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "TFT storage_bytes: not comparable (n/a, utilisation 0.0%; 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-18 (55d))", "status": "NOT COMPARABLE", "detail": "now not comparable at n/a, utilisation 0.0% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) (+0.0pp since the 2026-10-19 edition)" }, { "claim": "INFRA#infraxa `dex_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "SHDW `dex_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "OORT `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 20", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 20 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "RWS `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "ONDO `dex_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "RAIIN `dex_gt_pair_volume_24h_usd` unchanged for 10d at 0", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 0 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "EMAID `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 3", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 3 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "STAR `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 10", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 10 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "XL1 `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 8", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 8 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "XDATA `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "SN35 `SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS` unchanged for 10d at 3", "status": "CHANGED IN CURRENT WINDOW", "detail": "The current window contains 2 distinct values; this does not date the change relative to the prior report." }, { "claim": "ONO `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 2", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 2 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "AKT gpus withheld at the 100% growth review trigger", "status": "STILL WITHHELD", "detail": "growth is still above the 100% review trigger in the current window; the cause is not established" }, { "claim": "GLM providers withheld at the 100% growth review trigger", "status": "STILL WITHHELD", "detail": "growth is still above the 100% review trigger in the current window; the cause is not established" } ], "scoreboard": { "HELD": 11, "NOT COMPARABLE": 1, "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS": 11, "CHANGED IN CURRENT WINDOW": 1, "STILL WITHHELD": 2 } }, "call_sheet": { "method": "Each question is generated from a measured row in this brief and carries that row's number. No question appears here that the data above does not support.", "questions": [ { "target": "FLUX team / FLUX allocation", "basis": "memory_bytes utilisation 9.65% \u2192 6.29% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d), capacity +10.18% vs demand -28.09%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) memory_bytes capacity moved +10.18% while demand moved -28.09%, so utilisation fell 3.36pp to 6.29%. What is the committed demand pipeline that absorbs the capacity already onboarded, and what does the emission schedule cost per idle unit until it does?" }, { "target": "FLUX team / FLUX allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 16.93% \u2192 12.1% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d), capacity +9.22% vs demand -21.97%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) compute_cores capacity moved +9.22% while demand moved -21.97%, so utilisation fell 4.83pp to 12.1%. What is the committed demand pipeline that absorbs the capacity already onboarded, and what does the emission schedule cost per idle unit until it does?" }, { "target": "FLUX team / FLUX allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 5.18% \u2192 3.71% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d), capacity +6.89% vs demand -23.32%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) storage_bytes capacity moved +6.89% while demand moved -23.32%, so utilisation fell 1.47pp to 3.71%. What is the committed demand pipeline that absorbs the capacity already onboarded, and what does the emission schedule cost per idle unit until it does?" }, { "target": "TFT team / TFT allocation", "basis": "memory_bytes utilisation 13.87% \u2192 15.11% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d), demand -1.73% vs capacity -9.77%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) demand for memory_bytes moved -1.73% against -9.77% for capacity, so utilisation rose 1.24pp to 15.11%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "IO team / IO allocation", "basis": "devices active-device share 57.28% \u2192 64.21% over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-19 (74d), total devices -7.36% vs active devices +3.85%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-19 (74d) total devices moved -7.36% and active devices moved +3.85%, so the share of devices that are active went from 57.28% to 64.21%. Active here means connected, hired or idle \u2014 not in use. How many of the active devices are hired rather than idle, and what removed or added devices in the total?" }, { "target": "SC team / SC allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 25.85% \u2192 30.3% over 2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-19 (60d), demand +9.43% vs capacity -6.67%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-19 (60d) demand for storage_bytes moved +9.43% against -6.67% for capacity, so utilisation rose 4.45pp to 30.3%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "AKT team / AKT allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 7.98% \u2192 9.81% over 2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-19 (63d), demand +6.6% vs capacity -13.31%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-19 (63d) demand for storage_bytes moved +6.6% against -13.31% for capacity, so utilisation rose 1.83pp to 9.81%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "TFT team / TFT allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 15.02% \u2192 19.27% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d), demand +17.08% vs capacity -8.74%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d) demand for compute_cores moved +17.08% against -8.74% for capacity, so utilisation rose 4.25pp to 19.27%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "AKT team / AKT allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 20.55% \u2192 29.26% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d), demand +32.58% vs capacity -6.88%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d) demand for compute_cores moved +32.58% against -6.88% for capacity, so utilisation rose 8.71pp to 29.26%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "AKT team / AKT allocation", "basis": "memory_bytes utilisation 14.92% \u2192 36.42% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (69d), demand +91.91% vs capacity -21.41%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (69d) demand for memory_bytes moved +91.91% against -21.41% for capacity, so utilisation rose 21.5pp to 36.42%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "JCT team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`dex_pairs_active` = 1 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `dex_pairs_active` contain one value, 1, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 7 other metrics on JCT kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" }, { "target": "SXCH team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`dex_gt_pairs_active` = 3 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `dex_gt_pairs_active` contain one value, 3, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 5 other metrics on SXCH kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" } ] }, "verdict": { "scarce_asset": "Both halves of a utilisation ratio \u2014 capacity AND consumption \u2014 on 5 networks: AKT, FIL, FLUX, SC, TFT; plus an active-device share (active devices divided by total devices \u2014 connected, hired or idle, not consumption) on IO. Node counts are public everywhere; the denominator is not. This is the entire reason the ledger below can exist, and it is why coverage, not commentary, is what we sell.", "headline": "AKT memory_bytes: utilisation 14.92% \u2192 36.42%, with demand growing 113.32pp faster than capacity over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (69d)", "headline_consequence": "Recorded use grew faster than capacity over this window. This does not establish a capacity bottleneck, paid demand, or an onboarding constraint.", "unchanged_observation_candidates": 12, "supply_independently_confirmed": 144, "supply_networks_compared": 217, "how_to_disagree": "Every figure ships source, as-of and a verify URL; the utilisation halves are at GET /v1/supply?network= and this brief is machine-readable at GET /v1/brief. If you can refute a number here, we would rather publish the correction than the number.", "track_record": "1 changed in current window, 11 held, 1 not comparable, 2 still withheld, 11 unchanged observations" } } }