{ "generated_utc": "2026-10-21T08:00:01Z", "observation_quality_policy": "Excludes demonstrated September 18 collector errors from GeckoTerminal, DefiLlama and URN before the repair boundary; AMBNT/ambient identity is permanently excluded. CoinGecko market_cap_usd or circulating_supply of exactly 0 is excluded: CoinGecko sends 0 when it does not track a coin's supply, so it is unknown, not zero. Also checks symbol=PKT, source=deep_stats_pkt_explorer, and metrics pkt_airdrop_total, pkt_airdrop_claimed, pkt_airdrop1_unclaimed, pkt_airdrop2_unclaimed. Every checked observation requires finite nonnegative value, unit=token_base_units, nonempty verify_url, and an unambiguous finite nonnegative total with the exact same symbol, source, byte-exact as_of String, unit and verify_url. Component values must not exceed that total. All total rows participate: identical (value,unit,verify_url) duplicates are allowed; invalid or conflicting totals fail closed. Other observations are not_checked, not universally validated. This conditional Float64 constraint neither authenticates upstream data nor establishes freshness, exact integer accounting, supply reconciliation, or predictive value. Raw stored observations are unchanged. Since 2026-09-25, rows inside an interval of the quality-incident registry the caller passes (quarantined collector output) are labelled quality_incident and are not served.", "quality_incident_policy": "Every on-chain and daily-snapshot read also excludes each observation inside a quality-incident interval in our incident registry (matched on exact source, plus symbol and metric where the incident lists them).", "title": "Kairos Design Partner Brief \u2014 2026-10-21", "labels_version": "2026-10-20", "sections": { "allocator_ledger": { "question": "For utilisation rows: is this network adding capacity faster than recorded use absorbs it? For active-device share rows (resource: devices): are total devices growing faster than active devices? That share measures neither use nor demand.", "caveats": [ "Windows run 57-76 days per pair (anchor days from 2026-08-06 at the earliest to 2026-10-21 at the latest); series are read from 2026-08-06 00:37:10Z. One window per pair, not a trend.", "Descriptive only. Nothing here is a forecast or a trading signal.", "Pairs come from the canonical ontology; units corrected via native_scale.", "Reported only when both halves have >=8 obs over >=3.0d." ], "findings": [ { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 9.65, "utilisation_end_pct": 6.29, "utilisation_change_pp": -3.36, "supply_growth_pct": 9.93, "demand_growth_pct": -28.32, "divergence_pp": 38.25, "capacity_start": 190451885130383.7, "capacity_end": 209358208854176.7, "in_use_start": 18369693614080.0, "in_use_end": 13167182695913.738, "native_numerator": "APP_MEMORY_BYTES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_MEMORY_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1358, "window_days": 57.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "window_span_days": 57, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 16.93, "utilisation_end_pct": 12.06, "utilisation_change_pp": -4.87, "supply_growth_pct": 9.03, "demand_growth_pct": -22.32, "divergence_pp": 31.35, "capacity_start": 53012.8, "capacity_end": 57799.34782608696, "in_use_start": 8976.699999999977, "in_use_end": 6973.43043478261, "native_numerator": "APP_CORES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_CORES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1358, "window_days": 57.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "window_span_days": 57, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "FLUX", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 5.18, "utilisation_end_pct": 3.7, "utilisation_change_pp": -1.48, "supply_growth_pct": 6.73, "demand_growth_pct": -23.76, "divergence_pp": 30.49, "capacity_start": 3194783876000000.0, "capacity_end": 3409810092608695.5, "in_use_start": 165417000000000.0, "in_use_end": 126121913043478.27, "native_numerator": "APP_STORAGE_BYTES_ALLOCATED", "native_denominator": "NODE_STORAGE_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1358, "window_days": 57.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "window_span_days": 57, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "FIL", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 87.89, "utilisation_end_pct": 90.0, "utilisation_change_pp": 2.11, "supply_growth_pct": -8.25, "demand_growth_pct": -6.05, "divergence_pp": -2.21, "capacity_start": 1.5947972920265933e+18, "capacity_end": 1.4632014926686016e+18, "in_use_start": 1.4016604604644997e+18, "in_use_end": 1.3169194332350472e+18, "native_numerator": "VERIFIED_DEAL_BYTES", "native_denominator": "COMMITTED_BYTES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1168, "window_days": 57.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "window_span_days": 57, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 13.87, "utilisation_end_pct": 15.14, "utilisation_change_pp": 1.27, "supply_growth_pct": -9.8, "demand_growth_pct": -1.55, "divergence_pp": -8.24, "capacity_start": 63738276066918.4, "capacity_end": 57494712867328.0, "in_use_start": 8843518215535.2, "in_use_end": 8706083594805.708, "native_numerator": "MRU_USED", "native_denominator": "MRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1343, "window_days": 57.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "window_span_days": 57, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "IO", "resource": "devices", "utilisation_start_pct": 57.28, "utilisation_end_pct": 67.44, "utilisation_change_pp": 10.16, "supply_growth_pct": -11.9, "demand_growth_pct": 3.73, "divergence_pp": -15.63, "capacity_start": 2196.0, "capacity_end": 1934.7391304347825, "in_use_start": 1257.8636363636363, "in_use_end": 1304.7826086956522, "native_numerator": "DEVICES_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "DEVICES_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1778, "window_days": 75.0, "window_start": "2026-08-06", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-20 (75d)", "window_span_days": 75, "ratio_kind": "active_device_share" }, { "network": "SC", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 25.85, "utilisation_end_pct": 30.31, "utilisation_change_pp": 4.47, "supply_growth_pct": -6.62, "demand_growth_pct": 9.52, "divergence_pp": -16.14, "capacity_start": 7687625527024919.0, "capacity_end": 7178963951026176.0, "in_use_start": 1986938885016483.0, "in_use_end": 2176178930931029.2, "native_numerator": "STORAGE_ACTIVE_BYTES", "native_denominator": "STORAGE_TOTAL_BYTES", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1452, "window_days": 61.0, "window_start": "2026-08-20", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-20 (61d)", "window_span_days": 61, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 7.98, "utilisation_end_pct": 10.19, "utilisation_change_pp": 2.21, "supply_growth_pct": -13.5, "demand_growth_pct": 10.49, "divergence_pp": -23.99, "capacity_start": 747931803641028.2, "capacity_end": 646941454826145.6, "in_use_start": 59658849523638.86, "in_use_end": 65915910656213.336, "native_numerator": "STORAGE_ACTIVE_BYTES", "native_denominator": "STORAGE_TOTAL_BYTES", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1503, "window_days": 64.0, "window_start": "2026-08-17", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-20 (64d)", "window_span_days": 64, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 15.02, "utilisation_end_pct": 19.38, "utilisation_change_pp": 4.36, "supply_growth_pct": -8.75, "demand_growth_pct": 17.73, "divergence_pp": -26.49, "capacity_start": 9094.0, "capacity_end": 8297.833333333334, "in_use_start": 1366.0, "in_use_end": 1608.2083333333333, "native_numerator": "CRU_USED", "native_denominator": "CRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 1343, "window_days": 57.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "window_span_days": 57, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "compute_cores", "utilisation_start_pct": 20.55, "utilisation_end_pct": 27.76, "utilisation_change_pp": 7.21, "supply_growth_pct": -6.05, "demand_growth_pct": 26.93, "divergence_pp": -32.98, "capacity_start": 15508.0924, "capacity_end": 14569.94842857143, "in_use_start": 3186.816, "in_use_end": 4045.130714285714, "native_numerator": "CPU_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "CPU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "ACTIVE_CPU" ], "observations": 5891, "window_days": 73.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-10-21", "window_label": "2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d)", "window_span_days": 73, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "TFT", "resource": "storage_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 0.0, "utilisation_end_pct": 0.0, "utilisation_change_pp": 0.0, "supply_growth_pct": 12.79, "demand_growth_pct": null, "divergence_pp": null, "capacity_start": 3947042469701222.5, "capacity_end": 4451772364591104.0, "in_use_start": 0.0, "in_use_end": 0.0, "native_numerator": "HRU_USED", "native_denominator": "HRU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "SRU_USED", "SRU_TOTAL" ], "observations": 1343, "window_days": 57.0, "window_start": "2026-08-24", "window_end": "2026-10-20", "window_label": "2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "window_span_days": 57, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" } ], "generated_utc": "2026-10-21T04:05:08Z", "how_to_verify": "GET https://kairossignal.com/v1/supply?network= \u2014 both halves of each ratio ship with source + as_of.", "withheld_implausible": [ { "network": "AKT", "resource": "memory_bytes", "utilisation_start_pct": 14.92, "utilisation_end_pct": 37.11, "utilisation_change_pp": 22.2, "supply_growth_pct": -18.88, "demand_growth_pct": 101.86, "divergence_pp": -120.74, "capacity_start": 99017992849165.44, "capacity_end": 80326605223757.42, "in_use_start": 14768956748062.72, "in_use_end": 29812405390189.715, "native_numerator": "MEMORY_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "MEMORY_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 4678, "window_days": 70.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-10-21", "withheld_reason": "base moved 102% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d), above the 100% review trigger. Crossing the trigger is a reason to review the series, not proof of its cause: a move this large can be a real network change or a coverage or collector change, and this brief has not established which. Withheld from the table while the move stays above the trigger; the raw halves remain queryable via the API.", "window_label": "2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d)", "window_span_days": 73, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "AKT", "resource": "gpus", "utilisation_start_pct": 31.64, "utilisation_end_pct": 70.46, "utilisation_change_pp": 38.82, "supply_growth_pct": 1.02, "demand_growth_pct": 124.94, "divergence_pp": -123.92, "capacity_start": 423.96, "capacity_end": 428.2857142857143, "in_use_start": 134.16, "in_use_end": 301.7857142857143, "native_numerator": "GPU_ACTIVE", "native_denominator": "GPU_TOTAL", "alternate_readings_not_used": [], "observations": 5891, "window_days": 73.0, "window_start": "2026-08-09", "window_end": "2026-10-21", "withheld_reason": "base moved 125% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d), above the 100% review trigger. Crossing the trigger is a reason to review the series, not proof of its cause: a move this large can be a real network change or a coverage or collector change, and this brief has not established which. Withheld from the table while the move stays above the trigger; the raw halves remain queryable via the API.", "window_label": "2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d)", "window_span_days": 73, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" }, { "network": "GLM", "resource": "providers", "utilisation_start_pct": 13.05, "utilisation_end_pct": 23.76, "utilisation_change_pp": 10.71, "supply_growth_pct": 345.05, "demand_growth_pct": 710.47, "divergence_pp": -365.42, "capacity_start": 177.95714285714286, "capacity_end": 792.0, "in_use_start": 23.221052631578946, "in_use_end": 188.2, "native_numerator": "COMPUTING_NOW", "native_denominator": "PROVIDERS_ONLINE", "alternate_readings_not_used": [ "PROVIDERS_COMPUTING_UTIL", "PROVIDERS_ONLINE_UTIL" ], "observations": 6193, "window_days": 76.0, "window_start": "2026-08-06", "window_end": "2026-10-21", "withheld_reason": "base moved 710% over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-21 (76d), above the 100% review trigger. Crossing the trigger is a reason to review the series, not proof of its cause: a move this large can be a real network change or a coverage or collector change, and this brief has not established which. Withheld from the table while the move stays above the trigger; the raw halves remain queryable via the API.", "window_label": "2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-21 (76d)", "window_span_days": 76, "ratio_kind": "utilisation" } ], "plausibility_rule": "Rows whose supply or demand base moved more than 100% inside their own window are withheld and named, not silently dropped. Crossing 100% is a review trigger, not proof of a collector or coverage cause.", "window_fields": "window_start and window_end are each row's first and last anchor day; window_span_days is the span between them and is the count printed in window_label. window_days is the engine's own field: the number of days with data in whichever half has fewer of them, minus one, so it is shorter than the span when that half has gap days.", "engine_question": "Is this network adding capacity faster than demand absorbs it?", "title": "The Allocator's Ledger \u2014 capacity vs demand, and active-device share", "pairs_refused": [ { "network": "IO", "resource": "gpus", "reason": "io.net's GPU_TOTAL is NOT registered GPU supply \u2014 on every archived day when this refusal was recorded it equalled DEVICES_ACTIVE exactly, and GPU_HIRED + GPU_IDLE equals GPU_TOTAL exactly. So hired/total is a FILL RATE on the already-active pool, near-tautological, and it excludes every passive (registered but not connected) device. io.net's 'active' means connected through its worker, hired or idle, not in use. Publishing that fill rate beside other networks' utilisation of REGISTERED capacity would compare different quantities. The share of registered devices that are active is reported separately as the IO devices pair \u2014 an active-device share (active devices divided by total devices), computed from data for its own window rather than typed here." }, { "network": "NOS", "resource": "devices", "reason": "NOSANA HAS NO PUBLISHABLE DENOMINATOR (probed 2026-08-24, recorded so the next agent does not re-probe it). The numerator is free and clean \u2014 dashboard.k8s.prd.nos.ci/api/jobs?state=RUNNING reports totalJobs=947 running jobs and each Nosana job occupies exactly one node. The denominator is not: /api/nodes and /api/nodes/stats require an authorization header (401 with one, 422 without), and no unauthenticated sibling exposes a node count. Two tempting substitutes were REFUSED. (1) running + queued NODES from /api/markets: that per-market queue holds only IDLE nodes and is 0 across all 47 markets while 43 jobs sit QUEUED, so the denominator would equal the numerator by construction and publish a tautological 100%. (2) per-market access-SFT supply on Solana (231 for the nvidia-3070 market): a node joining three markets holds three SFTs and nothing burns them when it leaves, so the sum counts memberships and departed nodes, not live nodes. The numerator is collected anyway (collectors_clean/nosana_utilisation.py writes NOS JOBS_RUNNING/JOBS_QUEUED/MARKET_IDLE_NODES) so the pair can complete the day Nosana publishes a node count; no ratio until then." }, { "network": "SC", "resource": "devices", "reason": "SIACOIN'S DENOMINATOR IS CUMULATIVE, NOT LIVE (measured 2026-08-24). Both halves flow \u2014 SC_ACTIVE_HOSTS ~530, SC_TOTAL_HOSTS ~87,048 \u2014 so the pair LOOKS complete and would auto-publish a 0.6% utilisation figure. It is not a utilisation figure: TOTAL_HOSTS counts every host ever announced to the Sia network and is monotonically non-decreasing across all 19 archived days (87,032.7 \u2192 87,048.0, never once falling), while ACTIVE_HOSTS moves both ways in the 514-556 band. A denominator that can only grow makes the ratio a function of the network's AGE, so it would fall forever regardless of how the network performs \u2014 the Storj denominator trap in a new costume. The numerator is honest and stays queryable; no ratio until Sia publishes a currently-announced host count." }, { "network": "STORJ", "resource": "storage_bytes", "reason": "STORJ PUBLISHES NO CAPACITY DENOMINATOR (measured 2026-08-24). Everything public is the numerator: stats.storjshare.io/data.json gives bytes stored by customers (53.4 PB) and the node-side footprint after erasure coding (92.2 PB, 1.73x), and the per-satellite node counts are memberships, not capacity \u2014 a node serving three satellites is counted three times, which is the same double-count that already inflated STORJ node totals. Nothing upstream states how many bytes the network could hold, so any utilisation ratio would need a denominator we invented. The numerator stays collected and is now correctly labelled storage_bytes_in_use rather than storage_bytes_total, which is what it had been resolving to." } ], "pairs_pending_history": [] }, "frozen_feeds": { "method": "Exactly one distinct stored value across >=20 observations spanning >=5 days, while other metrics on the same network change. Counts are stored observations, not independently verified poll attempts. Metric-name hints rank candidates; they do not establish expected cadence. Constant values and single upstream rechecks do not prove a stopped feed. No statistical failure probability is claimed.", "precedent": "2026-08-17: this is how we caught Akash's own API serving 30.5% GPU utilisation while the measured value was 55.8%.", "count": 3001, "should_be_dynamic": [ { "network": "CFG", "metric": "dex_venues_active", "source": "dexscreener_pairs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "1", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 7, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "HEU", "metric": "dex_gt_pairs_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "4", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 4, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "CESS", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "5", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 8, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "VDO", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "2", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 6, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "XL1", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "2", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 5, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "XPIN", "metric": "dex_gt_pairs_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "20", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 6, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SUIDEPIN", "metric": "dex_pairs_active", "source": "dexscreener_pairs", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 38, "held_value": "1", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 15, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "NOS", "metric": "jobs_completed_market_nvidia_3060_community", "source": "nosana_explorer_api", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 237, "held_value": "56502", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 39, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "ONO", "metric": "dex_gt_pairs_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "9", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 23, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SXCH", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "3", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 5, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "DBT", "metric": "dex_gt_venues_active", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "2", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 8, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_l40s_active", "source": "first_party_api", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 240, "held_value": "8", "expected_dynamic": true, "network_still_moving_metrics": 55, "upstream_recheck": null } ], "slow_moving_probably_fine": [ { "network": "SN34", "metric": "SUBNET_MAX_VALIDATORS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "64", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 23, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "OXT", "metric": "dex_gt_liquidity_top_pair_usd", "source": "geckoterminal_dex", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "4006.0642", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 5, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN18", "metric": "SUBNET_MAX_UIDS", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "257", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 20, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "KYVE", "metric": "bonded_validators", "source": "cosmos_lcd", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 240, "held_value": "21", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 8, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN68", "metric": "SUBNET_REGISTRATIONS_THIS_INTERVAL", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "3", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 20, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "DYM", "metric": "community_tax", "source": "cosmos_lcd", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 240, "held_value": "0", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 11, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN83", "metric": "SUBNET_LOCKED_TAO", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "261.361408796", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 21, "upstream_recheck": null }, { "network": "SN69", "metric": "SUBNET_REGISTERED_AT_BLOCK", "source": "subtensor_rpc", "days_frozen": 10, "polls": 40, "held_value": "8138182", "expected_dynamic": false, "network_still_moving_metrics": 16, "upstream_recheck": null } ] }, "supply_verifiability": { "method": "Chain-read total supply divided by the aggregator's reported total supply, same day. Decimals are normalised by the collectors. A ratio below 1 usually means the token also lives on chains we do not read; a ratio above 1 means the aggregator is understating.", "networks_compared": 221, "exact_match_within_1pct": 149, "gaps_total": 54, "gaps_listed": 15, "gaps": [ { "network": "BDX", "chain_source": "bsc_rpc", "chain_read": 1153366.694777649, "aggregator_reported": 9939718245.38, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0001, "chain": "bsc", "contract": "0x9d10a1ec41fe7878429bb457e31f9b050d38c633", "verify_url": "https://bscscan.com/token/0x9d10a1ec41fe7878429bb457e31f9b050d38c633" }, { "network": "GENE", "chain_source": "bsc_rpc", "chain_read": 261412.67254282383, "aggregator_reported": 100000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0026, "chain": "bsc", "contract": "0x9df465460938f9ebdf51c38cc87d72184471f8f0", "verify_url": "https://bscscan.com/token/0x9df465460938f9ebdf51c38cc87d72184471f8f0" }, { "network": "POKT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 17402624.454205, "aggregator_reported": 2375352230.701866, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0073, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x764a726d9ced0433a8d7643335919deb03a9a935", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x764a726d9ced0433a8d7643335919deb03a9a935" }, { "network": "OORT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 20000000.0, "aggregator_reported": 1998899999.89, "verifiable_ratio": 0.01, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x5651fa7a726b9ec0cad00ee140179912b6e73599", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x5651fa7a726b9ec0cad00ee140179912b6e73599" }, { "network": "DEUS", "chain_source": "solana_rpc", "chain_read": 10102363.123429708, "aggregator_reported": 1000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0101, "chain": "solana", "contract": "7JoGUTeaXkjcMGa6xJP2idYNYiLreto1WnsACHnpw3Gd", "verify_url": "https://solscan.io/token/7JoGUTeaXkjcMGa6xJP2idYNYiLreto1WnsACHnpw3Gd" }, { "network": "EWT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 917360.3113309246, "aggregator_reported": 81071824.94544457, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0113, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x178c820f862b14f316509ec36b13123da19a6054", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x178c820f862b14f316509ec36b13123da19a6054" }, { "network": "OCTA", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 1173601.8631, "aggregator_reported": 44907921.32955668, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0261, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0xfa704148d516b209d52c2d75f239274c8f8eaf1a", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0xfa704148d516b209d52c2d75f239274c8f8eaf1a" }, { "network": "NMT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 3831914.9727321663, "aggregator_reported": 143446415.2, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0267, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x03aa6298f1370642642415edc0db8b957783e8d6", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x03aa6298f1370642642415edc0db8b957783e8d6" }, { "network": "BTT", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 36542206310204.44, "aggregator_reported": 990000000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0369, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0xc669928185dbce49d2230cc9b0979be6dc797957", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0xc669928185dbce49d2230cc9b0979be6dc797957" }, { "network": "SDM", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 40043182.493887, "aggregator_reported": 1000000000.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.04, "chain": "base", "contract": "0x9cfe02eb040c6f5718126128dbba0c1d364d9c07", "verify_url": "https://base.blockscout.com/token/0x9cfe02eb040c6f5718126128dbba0c1d364d9c07" }, { "network": "NTMPI", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 19055146.557242, "aggregator_reported": 399963020.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0476, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x53be7be0ce7f92bcbd2138305735160fb799be4f", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x53be7be0ce7f92bcbd2138305735160fb799be4f" }, { "network": "LOOPIN", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 3296565.04723058, "aggregator_reported": 57655698.609628685, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0572, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x975da7b2325f815f1de23c8b68f721fb483b8071", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x975da7b2325f815f1de23c8b68f721fb483b8071" }, { "network": "GNUS", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 970018.5130378058, "aggregator_reported": 15193848.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0638, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x614577036f0a024dbc1c88ba616b394dd65d105a", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x614577036f0a024dbc1c88ba616b394dd65d105a" }, { "network": "SLC", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 7100195689.571953, "aggregator_reported": 98797933055.0, "verifiable_ratio": 0.0719, "chain": "base", "contract": "0x6bd83abc39391af1e24826e90237c4bd3468b5d2", "verify_url": "https://base.blockscout.com/token/0x6bd83abc39391af1e24826e90237c4bd3468b5d2" }, { "network": "NODL", "chain_source": "evm_blockscout", "chain_read": 546469427.3371207, "aggregator_reported": 7487432934.061318, "verifiable_ratio": 0.073, "chain": "eth", "contract": "0x6dd0e17ec6fe56c5f58a0fe2bb813b9b5cc25990", "verify_url": "https://eth.blockscout.com/token/0x6dd0e17ec6fe56c5f58a0fe2bb813b9b5cc25990" } ], "read": "149 of 221 networks reconcile to within 1% \u2014 those figures are independently confirmed, not taken on trust. Of the other 72, 54 are more than 10% off; the 15 with the lowest ratios are listed with the exact contract we read so you can check in one click.", "not_an_accusation": "A low ratio is a statement about ONE deployment on ONE chain, not a claim that the aggregator is wrong. Multi-chain tokens (native chain + bridged ERC-20) legitimately show low ratios: e.g. POKT and BTT are native elsewhere and only their wrapped portion is readable on the chain we poll. Verified 2026-08-24 that our reads are faithful to the contract: RIZ reads 100,000 on 0x058d411a..., byte-identical to the explorer's own figure for that contract." }, "whale_netflow_extremes": { "method": "First difference of summed proof-of-reserve wallet balances across a FIXED exchange set (DefiLlama-tracked; Coinbase/Kraken publish no wallets and are absent). Flagged when the latest daily flow sits outside the middle 90% of its own ~90-day history.", "flags": [ { "asset": "WBTC", "date": "2026-10-21", "netflow_pct_of_balance": 20.755, "percentile_band": "top 5%", "history_days": 133, "read": "Coins arriving on tracked exchange wallets" }, { "asset": "LTC", "date": "2026-10-21", "netflow_pct_of_balance": 13.182, "percentile_band": "top 5%", "history_days": 127, "read": "Coins arriving on tracked exchange wallets" }, { "asset": "PEPE", "date": "2026-10-21", "netflow_pct_of_balance": 1.631, "percentile_band": "top 5%", "history_days": 136, "read": "Coins arriving on tracked exchange wallets" }, { "asset": "DOT", "date": "2026-10-21", "netflow_pct_of_balance": -0.546, "percentile_band": "bottom 5%", "history_days": 135, "read": "Coins leaving tracked exchange wallets (cannot be market-sold from cold storage)" } ], "null_expectation": { "assets_evaluated": 47, "expected_flags_per_day_without_signal": 4.0, "flagged_today": 4, "shown": 4, "method": "the same rule (outside each asset's own 5th-95th percentile band, |flow| >= 0.5%) applied to every past day of that asset's history, summed across assets" }, "verify": "https://defillama.com/cexs" }, "concentration_watch": { "caveat": "Token ACCOUNTS, not owners \u2014 pools, treasuries and exchange wallets count, so this is an upper-bound concentration proxy. Series began 2026-08-24; week-over-week deltas appear as the baseline accrues.", "most_concentrated": [ { "network": "STAR", "top1_account_pct": 33.1, "top10_account_pct": 99.8, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "BRUSH", "top1_account_pct": 41.9, "top10_account_pct": 99.8, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "GGRID", "top1_account_pct": 87.7, "top10_account_pct": 99.6, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "PULSE", "top1_account_pct": 27.6, "top10_account_pct": 99.5, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ACRON", "top1_account_pct": 88.9, "top10_account_pct": 98.3, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ROVR", "top1_account_pct": 20.2, "top10_account_pct": 98.1, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "GB", "top1_account_pct": 86.5, "top10_account_pct": 96.3, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "CPU", "top1_account_pct": 76.5, "top10_account_pct": 95.7, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "PHY", "top1_account_pct": 40.9, "top10_account_pct": 95.5, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "QUIVER", "top1_account_pct": 68.0, "top10_account_pct": 95.4, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" } ], "least_concentrated": [ { "network": "MOBILE", "top1_account_pct": 8.4, "top10_account_pct": 46.6, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "NOS", "top1_account_pct": 11.5, "top10_account_pct": 42.8, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "HONEY", "top1_account_pct": 11.4, "top10_account_pct": 37.4, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "ALL", "top1_account_pct": 8.8, "top10_account_pct": 34.7, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" }, { "network": "HNT", "top1_account_pct": 4.2, "top10_account_pct": 27.2, "as_of": "2026-10-21T06:00:01Z" } ] }, "supply_movers_7d": { "method": "First-party supply telemetry only (tier=supply_telemetry). Latest value vs the value ~8-15 days ago; moves >15% shown. Single-window description, not a trend.", "top": [ { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_VOLUME", "change_pct": 25994607.1, "from": 0.453212706, "to": 117811.315542518, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN86", "metric": "SUBNET_VOLUME", "change_pct": 810094.9, "from": 2.125984345, "to": 17224.617765328, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "change_pct": 660925.5, "from": 0.0005, "to": 3.305127279, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 407647.1, "from": 4.198e-06, "to": 0.017117224, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_FLOW", "change_pct": 358978.7, "from": 0.452984529, "to": 1626.570871924, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN112", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 142964.4, "from": 1.148e-06, "to": 0.001642379, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN112", "metric": "SUBNET_ALPHA_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 108770.9, "from": 0.000188124, "to": 0.204812259, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_RECYCLED_FOR_REGISTRATION", "change_pct": 72132.2, "from": 0.453212706, "to": 327.365376488, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_UIDS_WITH_CONSENSUS", "change_pct": 24400.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 245.0, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN86", "metric": "SUBNET_BURN_COST", "change_pct": 19900.0, "from": 0.0005, "to": 0.099999999, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN92", "metric": "SUBNET_ALPHA_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 16147.1, "from": 0.003155857, "to": 0.51273593, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN71", "metric": "SUBNET_ALPHA_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 4875.4, "from": 2.1491e-05, "to": 0.001069257, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN71", "metric": "SUBNET_TAO_IN_EMISSION", "change_pct": 4258.6, "from": 1.16e-07, "to": 5.056e-06, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "FLOCK", "metric": "DL_REV_24H_USD", "change_pct": 2525.0, "from": 0.08, "to": 2.1, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "FLOCK", "metric": "DL_FEES_24H_USD", "change_pct": 2525.0, "from": 0.08, "to": 2.1, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_a100_80g_pcie_spot_total", "change_pct": 1600.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 17.0, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "IO", "metric": "devices_rtx_a6000_spot_total", "change_pct": 1600.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 17.0, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "MAWARI", "metric": "AVG_BLOCK_TIME_MS", "change_pct": 1018.0, "from": 2293.0, "to": 25636.0, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN55", "metric": "SUBNET_UIDS_WITH_CONSENSUS", "change_pct": 1000.0, "from": 1.0, "to": 11.0, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null }, { "network": "SN70", "metric": "SUBNET_ACTIVE_NEURONS", "change_pct": 966.7, "from": 3.0, "to": 32.0, "as_of": "2026-10-20", "note": null } ] }, "track_record": { "method": "Every claim in the prior edition of this brief (2026-10-20), re-measured today by this edition's generator. The brief is generated daily, so the prior edition is normally the previous day's. Generated mechanically from the prior edition's JSON: reversals cannot be dropped and wins cannot be added by hand.", "prior_brief": "2026-10-20", "entries": [ { "claim": "FLUX memory_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 9.65% \u2192 6.29%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity 10.18%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use -28.09%\u201d; Divergence \u201c38.27pp\u201d; Read \u201ccapacity growth exceeds use growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now capacity growth exceeds use growth at 38.25pp, utilisation 6.29% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) (+0.0pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "FLUX compute_cores, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 16.93% \u2192 12.1%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity 9.22%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use -21.97%\u201d; Divergence \u201c31.19pp\u201d; Read \u201ccapacity growth exceeds use growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now capacity growth exceeds use growth at 31.35pp, utilisation 12.06% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) (-0.04pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "FLUX storage_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 5.18% \u2192 3.71%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity 6.89%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use -23.32%\u201d; Divergence \u201c30.21pp\u201d; Read \u201ccapacity growth exceeds use growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now capacity growth exceeds use growth at 30.49pp, utilisation 3.7% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) (-0.01pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "FIL storage_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 87.89% \u2192 89.62%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity -7.05%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use -5.23%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-1.83pp\u201d; Read \u201cgrowth rates within 5pp\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now growth rates within 5pp at -2.21pp, utilisation 90.0% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) (+0.38pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "TFT memory_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 13.87% \u2192 15.11%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity -9.77%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use -1.73%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-8.04pp\u201d; Read \u201cuse growth exceeds capacity growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -8.24pp, utilisation 15.14% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) (+0.03pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "IO devices, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-19 (74d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cactive-device share 57.28% \u2192 64.21%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ctotal devices -7.36%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201cactive devices 3.85%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-11.21pp\u201d; Read \u201cactive-device growth exceeds total-device growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now active-device growth exceeds total-device growth at -15.63pp, active-device share 67.44% over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-20 (75d) (+3.23pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "SC storage_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-19 (60d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 25.85% \u2192 30.3%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity -6.67%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use 9.43%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-16.09pp\u201d; Read \u201cuse growth exceeds capacity growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -16.14pp, utilisation 30.31% over 2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-20 (61d) (+0.01pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "AKT storage_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-19 (63d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 7.98% \u2192 9.81%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity -13.31%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use 6.6%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-19.91pp\u201d; Read \u201cuse growth exceeds capacity growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -23.99pp, utilisation 10.19% over 2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-20 (64d) (+0.38pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "TFT compute_cores, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 15.02% \u2192 19.27%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity -8.74%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use 17.08%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-25.82pp\u201d; Read \u201cuse growth exceeds capacity growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -26.49pp, utilisation 19.38% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) (+0.11pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "AKT compute_cores, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 20.55% \u2192 29.26%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity -6.88%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use 32.58%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-39.46pp\u201d; Read \u201cuse growth exceeds capacity growth\u201d", "status": "HELD", "detail": "now use growth exceeds capacity growth at -32.98pp, utilisation 27.76% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d) (-1.5pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "AKT memory_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 14.92% \u2192 36.42%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity -21.41%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use 91.91%\u201d; Divergence \u201c-113.32pp\u201d; Read \u201cuse growth exceeds capacity growth\u201d", "status": "NOT REPORTED IN THIS EDITION", "detail": "the pair fell below the observation threshold or was withheld \u2014 see above; we do not carry a stale verdict forward" }, { "claim": "TFT storage_bytes, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: Window \u201c2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-19 (56d)\u201d; Ratio, start \u2192 end \u201cutilisation 0.0% \u2192 0.0%\u201d; Denominator \u0394 \u201ccapacity 12.58%\u201d; Numerator \u0394 \u201crecorded use n/a\u201d; Divergence \u201cn/a\u201d; Read \u201cnot comparable\u201d", "status": "NOT COMPARABLE", "detail": "now not comparable at n/a, utilisation 0.0% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) (+0.0pp since the 2026-10-20 edition)" }, { "claim": "PIGGY `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 20", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 20 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "SOLO `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "GGRID `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 3", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 3 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "AKRE `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 20", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 20 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "QBIT `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "AVIVE `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 5", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 5 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "PLANCK `dex_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "HASHAI `dex_gt_pairs_active` unchanged for 10d at 8", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 8 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "GB `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 3", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 3 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "AKT `escrow_resolution_defect_24h_uakt` unchanged for 10d at 0", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 0 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "RSS3 `dex_gt_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 4", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 4 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "OBOT `dex_venues_active` unchanged for 10d at 1", "status": "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS", "detail": "The stored observations remain at 1 in the current window; feed failure is unproven." }, { "claim": "AKT gpus withheld, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: \u201cbase moved 116% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-20 (72d)\u201d", "status": "STILL WITHHELD", "detail": "growth is still above the 100% review trigger in the current window; the cause is not established" }, { "claim": "GLM providers withheld, as published in the 2026-10-20 edition: \u201cbase moved 749% over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-20 (75d)\u201d", "status": "STILL WITHHELD", "detail": "growth is still above the 100% review trigger in the current window; the cause is not established" } ], "scoreboard": { "HELD": 10, "NOT REPORTED IN THIS EDITION": 1, "NOT COMPARABLE": 1, "UNCHANGED OBSERVATIONS": 12, "STILL WITHHELD": 2 } }, "call_sheet": { "method": "Each question is generated from a measured row in this brief and carries that row's number. No question appears here that the data above does not support.", "questions": [ { "target": "FLUX team / FLUX allocation", "basis": "memory_bytes utilisation 9.65% \u2192 6.29% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d), capacity +9.93% vs demand -28.32%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) memory_bytes capacity moved +9.93% while demand moved -28.32%, so utilisation fell 3.36pp to 6.29%. What is the committed demand pipeline that absorbs the capacity already onboarded, and what does the emission schedule cost per idle unit until it does?" }, { "target": "FLUX team / FLUX allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 16.93% \u2192 12.06% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d), capacity +9.03% vs demand -22.32%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) compute_cores capacity moved +9.03% while demand moved -22.32%, so utilisation fell 4.87pp to 12.06%. What is the committed demand pipeline that absorbs the capacity already onboarded, and what does the emission schedule cost per idle unit until it does?" }, { "target": "FLUX team / FLUX allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 5.18% \u2192 3.7% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d), capacity +6.73% vs demand -23.76%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) storage_bytes capacity moved +6.73% while demand moved -23.76%, so utilisation fell 1.48pp to 3.7%. What is the committed demand pipeline that absorbs the capacity already onboarded, and what does the emission schedule cost per idle unit until it does?" }, { "target": "TFT team / TFT allocation", "basis": "memory_bytes utilisation 13.87% \u2192 15.14% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d), demand -1.55% vs capacity -9.8%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) demand for memory_bytes moved -1.55% against -9.8% for capacity, so utilisation rose 1.27pp to 15.14%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "IO team / IO allocation", "basis": "devices active-device share 57.28% \u2192 67.44% over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-20 (75d), total devices -11.9% vs active devices +3.73%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-06 \u2192 2026-10-20 (75d) total devices moved -11.9% and active devices moved +3.73%, so the share of devices that are active went from 57.28% to 67.44%. Active here means connected, hired or idle \u2014 not in use. How many of the active devices are hired rather than idle, and what removed or added devices in the total?" }, { "target": "SC team / SC allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 25.85% \u2192 30.31% over 2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-20 (61d), demand +9.52% vs capacity -6.62%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-20 \u2192 2026-10-20 (61d) demand for storage_bytes moved +9.52% against -6.62% for capacity, so utilisation rose 4.46pp to 30.31%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "AKT team / AKT allocation", "basis": "storage_bytes utilisation 7.98% \u2192 10.19% over 2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-20 (64d), demand +10.49% vs capacity -13.5%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-17 \u2192 2026-10-20 (64d) demand for storage_bytes moved +10.49% against -13.5% for capacity, so utilisation rose 2.21pp to 10.19%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "TFT team / TFT allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 15.02% \u2192 19.38% over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d), demand +17.73% vs capacity -8.75%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d) demand for compute_cores moved +17.73% against -8.75% for capacity, so utilisation rose 4.36pp to 19.38%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "AKT team / AKT allocation", "basis": "compute_cores utilisation 20.55% \u2192 27.76% over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d), demand +26.93% vs capacity -6.05%", "ask": "Over 2026-08-09 \u2192 2026-10-21 (73d) demand for compute_cores moved +26.93% against -6.05% for capacity, so utilisation rose 7.21pp to 27.76%. Is there evidence of an onboarding constraint (hardware, staking cost, geography), and at what utilisation does pricing or QoS start to bind?" }, { "target": "CFG team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`dex_venues_active` = 1 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `dex_venues_active` contain one value, 1, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 7 other metrics on CFG kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" }, { "target": "HEU team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`dex_gt_pairs_active` = 4 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `dex_gt_pairs_active` contain one value, 4, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 4 other metrics on HEU kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" }, { "target": "CESS team / their public dashboard", "basis": "`dex_gt_venues_active` = 5 across 40 stored observations over 10d", "ask": "Our stored observations of `dex_gt_venues_active` contain one value, 5, spanning 10 days across 40 stored observations, while 8 other metrics on CESS kept moving. When did that figure last recompute, and is anything downstream of it \u2014 grant reporting, rewards, the investor deck \u2014 reading it as live?" } ] }, "verdict": { "scarce_asset": "Both halves of a utilisation ratio \u2014 capacity AND consumption \u2014 on 5 networks: AKT, FIL, FLUX, SC, TFT; plus an active-device share (active devices divided by total devices \u2014 connected, hired or idle, not consumption) on IO. Node counts are public everywhere; the denominator is not. This is the entire reason the ledger below can exist, and it is why coverage, not commentary, is what we sell.", "headline": "FLUX memory_bytes: utilisation 9.65% \u2192 6.29%, with capacity growing 38.25pp faster than demand over 2026-08-24 \u2192 2026-10-20 (57d)", "headline_consequence": "Capacity grew faster than recorded use over this window. This describes relative growth; it does not establish falling provider revenue or its cause.", "unchanged_observation_candidates": 12, "supply_independently_confirmed": 149, "supply_networks_compared": 221, "how_to_disagree": "Every figure ships source, as-of and a verify URL; the utilisation halves are at GET /v1/supply?network= and this brief is machine-readable at GET /v1/brief. If you can refute a number here, we would rather publish the correction than the number.", "track_record": "10 held, 1 not comparable, 1 not reported in this edition, 2 still withheld, 12 unchanged observations" } } }